000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190312
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI OCT 19 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 14N88W TO 10N102W TO 14N115W TO 
10N131W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
10N131W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 87W AND 91W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH BETWEEN 120W AND 122W...AND ALSO FROM 07N TO 10N W OF 
139W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE REMNANT LOW OF PAUL IS NEAR 32N123W AT 1011 MB. AN AFTERNOON 
ASCAT PASS INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ON THE E SIDE OF THE 
REMNANT CIRCULATION N OF 30N. THE LAGGING AREA OF 8 TO 9 FT 
ASSOCIATED SWELL HAS ALSO SHIFTED N OF 30N DURING THIS EVENING. 

THE LOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME ABSORBED INTO LARGER-SCALE 
TROUGHING N OF 20N BETWEEN 123W AND 128W AS A RESULT OF A RATHER 
STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
CENTERED NEAR 27N123W. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WRAP INTO THE UPPER 
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH RESIDUAL MULTI-LAYERED 
CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS FOUND N OF 20N BETWEEN 
119W AND 131W. 

THE OVERALL PATTERN N OF 20N W OF 120W THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS 
WILL BE PERSISTENT NORTHERLIES BETWEEN A RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 
1021 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N145W AND THE SURFACE 
TROUGHING REACHING FROM 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 29N125W THROUGH 
25N126W TO 21N128W. SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE 
TO BLEED S OF 30N WHILE SHIFTING FROM THE FAR N CENTRAL WATERS 
TO THE NW CORNER BY 24 AND 48 HOURS. A BRIEF EPISODE OF FRESH TO 
STRONG NE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED BY 24 HOURS IN THE NW CORNER AS 
THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES NW OF THE AREA 
AND THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHING.

BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTION 
WILL BE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WHERE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE 
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FRESH TO STRONG 
NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF COMMENCING EARLY SAT. THESE WINDS 
WILL BE DRIVEN BY STRONG HIGH PRES DEVELOPING TO THE N OVER THE 
GULF OF MEXICO AND LOWER PRES TO THE S ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
MONSOON TROUGH. THE WINDS WILL THEN PULSE THROUGH THE WEEKEND 
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING IN THE MORE FAVORABLE LATE 
MORNING HOURS.

$$
LEWITSKY