000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182147
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU OCT 18 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 13N88W TO 12N100W TO 11N105W TO 
15N116W TO 10N131W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM 10N131W TO 09N140W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM S OF 08N E OF 85W...FROM 10N TO 13N E 
OF 92W...WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 
102W AND 108W...WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH 
BETWEEN 120W AND 126W...AND ALSO FROM 07N TO 10N W OF 138W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE REMNANT LOW OF PAUL IS NEAR 30.5N124W AT 1010 MB. A RECENT 
ASCAT PASS STILL INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ON THE E SIDE 
OF THE REMNANT CIRCULATION N OF 30N...WITH A LAGGING AREA OF 9 
FT SWELL N OF 29N BETWEEN 117W AND 120W. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO 
BECOME ABSORBED INTO LARGER-SCALE TROUGHING N OF 20N BETWEEN 
125W AND 135W AS A RESULT OF A RATHER STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER 
LEVEL LOW NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CENTERED NEAR 26N123W. 
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WRAP INTO THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION WITH RESIDUAL MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE 
ISOLATED SHOWERS FOUND N OF 20N BETWEEN 118W AND 130W. 

THE OVERALL PATTERN N OF 20N W OF 120W THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS 
WILL BE PERSISTENT NORTHERLIES BETWEEN A RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 
1022 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N138W AND THE SURFACE 
TROUGHING N OF 20N W OF 125W. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 20 KT 
OR LESS...HOWEVER SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO 
BLEED S OF 30N WHILE SHIFTING FROM THE FAR N CENTRAL WATERS TO 
THE NW CORNER BY 48 HOURS. A BRIEF EPISODE OF FRESH TO STRONG NE 
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED BY 36 HOURS IN THE NW CORNER AS THE PRES 
GRADIENT BETWEEN STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES NW OF THE AREA AND THE 
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHING.

BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTION 
WILL BE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WHERE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE 
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FRESH TO STRONG 
NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF COMMENCING EARLY SAT. THESE WINDS 
WILL BE DRIVEN BY STRONG HIGH PRES DEVELOPING TO THE N OVER THE 
GULF OF MEXICO AND LOWER PRES TO THE S ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
MONSOON TROUGH. THE WINDS WILL THEN PULSE THROUGH THE WEEKEND 
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING IN THE MORE FAVORABLE LATE 
MORNING HOURS.

$$
LEWITSKY