000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181524
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU OCT 18 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 13N88W TO 14N91W TO 11N101W TO 
13N108W AND RESUMES NEAR 15N117W TO 10N129W. THE INTERTROPICAL 
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N129W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 86W AND 90W... 
FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 93W AND 98W...FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 
103W AND 106W...AND FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 127W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE REMNANT LOW OF PAUL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND BECOME ABSORBED 
INTO LARGER-SCALE WEAK TROUGHING N OF 20N BETWEEN 115W AND 130W 
AS A RESULT OF A RATHER STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW NOTED 
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CENTERED NEAR 25N123W. DRY AIR CONTINUES 
TO WRAP INTO THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH RESIDUAL 
MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS FOUND 
FROM 23N TO 29N BETWEEN 121W AND 127W. WHILE 20 TO 25 KT S TO SW 
WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE REMNANTS OF 
PAUL...THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE 
PERSISTENT NORTHERLIES BETWEEN A RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB 
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N144W AND THE SURFACE TROUGHING BETWEEN 
115W AND 130W. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 20 KT OR LESS... 
HOWEVER SEAS OF 8 FT IN NW SWELL WILL BLEED SOUTH OF 30N OVER 
THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. LOOKING 
AHEAD...GFS...ECMWF...AND NAM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE 
POTENTIAL FOR FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC EARLY SATURDAY AND PULSING HIGHER TYPICALLY IN THE 
LATE MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE 
DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

$$
HUFFMAN