000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180930
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU OCT 18 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N92W TO 13N109W TO 13N116W TO 
11N120W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N120W TO 09N140W. CLUSTERS 
OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF 11.5N95.5W AND 10N128W.

...DISCUSSION...

PAUL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW. THERE 
IS NO DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ALTHOUGH 20 TO 25 
KT WINDS ARE STILL PRESENT NEAR THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA WITHIN 75 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NE QUADRANT WITH 7 
TO 9 FT SEAS. THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE AND BECOME A WEAK SURFACE 
TROUGH BY FRI MORNING.

A HIGH PRES RIDGE ORIENTED NE-SW FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO 
24N155W IS THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA. FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS WEST OF CALIFORNIA 
ARE GENERATING N TO NW SWELL MOVING SOUTH OF 30N INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL PORTION...WITH 8 TO 9 FT SEAS FOUND N OF 27N BETWEEN 
121W AND 131W. THE AREA OF SWELL GREATER THAN 8 FT WILL SHIFT W 
TO THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA BY EARLY SAT.

BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE 
REGION THROUGH SUN NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD...GFS AND ECMWF MODEL 
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY 
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC MON AND TUE AS STRONG HIGH PRES 
DEVELOPS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE... 
STRONGEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING LATE NIGHT AND 
EARLY MORNING HOURS THEN PULSE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

$$
MUNDELL