000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172126
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED OCT 17 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

RECENTLY DOWNGRADED POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW PAUL CENTERED NEAR 
27.7N 115.3W AT 17/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 15 MILES WSW OF PUNTA 
EUGENIA MEXICO MOVING NW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 40 KT. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS PRESENT. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. PAUL WILL CONTINUE ON A 
NNW TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...DISSIPATING THEREAFTER. 
LINGERING ASSOCIATED SWELL WILL SHIFT N OF 30N BY 48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N86W TO 10N100W TO 15N108W THEN 
RESUMES NEAR 16N112W TO 10N125W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE 
ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N125W TO 09N130W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE COASTS OF PANAMA 
AND COSTA RICA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60-120 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 96W AND 106W...WITHIN 60 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 118W AND 123W...AND 
ALSO FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 134W AND 138W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN ARCHING RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES 
POSITIONED WELL N OF THE FORECAST WATERS W OF OREGON NEAR 
13N129W SWINGING INTO THE AREA NEAR 32N140W WITH A SE TERMINUS 
NEAR 23N131W. RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATE MODERATE TO 
FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 10N W OF 130W WITH LIGHT TO 
MODERATE WINDS MAINLY N OF 10N E OF 130W...EXCEPT FOR THE AREA 
NEAR PAUL. 

A SECTION OF 8-10 FT NW SWELL IS IN THE N CENTRAL WATERS N OF 
23N BETWEEN 120W AND 131W WITH FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS N 
OF 30N AIDING THE PRODUCTION OF THESE SEAS. THIS AREA OF SWELL 
OF 8 FT OR GREATER WILL SHIFT WESTWARD TO N OF 25N W OF 130W BY 
48 HOURS. 

A LINGERING AREA OF 8 FT MIXED NE AND NW SWELL IS IN THE FAR W 
CENTRAL WATERS FROM 10N TO 18N W OF 136W GENERATED BY EARLIER 
FRESH NE TRADES. THIS SWELL IS FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 
8 FT LATER THIS EVENING.

LOOKING BEYOND 48 HOURS...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER FRESH 
TO STRONG NORTHERLY WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS 
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES DEVELOPS OVER INTERIOR SE MEXICO IN TANDEM 
WITH A NORTHWARD SHIFTING MONSOON TROUGH JUST S OF THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING 
THE FAVORABLE MORNING HOURS OF SAT AND SUN.

$$
LEWITSKY