000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171539
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED OCT 17 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL IS CENTERED NEAR 27.0N 114.1W AT 
17/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 75 NM SE OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MOVING NW 
AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 115W AND 117W. 
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 13N89W TO 14N92W TO 11N105W AND 
RESUMES NEAR 17N112W TO 09N127W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE 
ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N127W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 78W AND 85W...FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 
96W AND 100W...FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 115W AND 123W...AND FROM 
07N TO 10N BETWEEN 135W AND 139W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN EARLIER OVERNIGHT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AROUND 17/0428 UTC 
SHOWED CYCLONIC WINDS 20 KT OR MORE ASSOCIATED WITH PAUL 
EXTENDING TO WITHIN 210 NM IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. WITH 
PROGRESSIVE WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE HAVING OCCURRED OVER THE 
PAST 6 TO 8 HOURS...THE EXTENT OF 20 TO 30 KT WINDS IS CURRENTLY 
WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER. THIS AREA INCLUDES A PORTION OF THE 
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA WATERS AS WELL WITH SEAS BOTH IN THE 
SOUTHERN QUADRANT AND IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN THE RANGE OF 
8 TO 10 FT. PAUL IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DISSIPATING THROUGH 
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND FALL BELOW HIGH SEAS ADVISORY 
CRITERIA.

ELSEWHERE...A 1022 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 34N138W 
AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA CREATING A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 
RIDGE AND T.D. PAUL. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING A 
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY BREEZE N OF 22N BETWEEN 120W AND 
131W WITH WIND-DRIVEN SEAS AND NW SWELL TO 9 FT. ENHANCED W-SW 
MONSOON FLOW S OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS ALSO SUPPORTING 
6 TO 7 FT SEAS IN A BROAD SWATH OF OCEAN FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 
E OF 108W. LINGERING TRADE WIND SWELL IN THE RANGE OF 7 TO 8 FT 
IS FOUND N OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 09N TO 15N W OF 137W.

$$
HUFFMAN