000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170945
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED OCT 17 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM PAUL CENTERED NEAR 26.4N 113.3W AT 0900 
UTC MOVING NW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 
992 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS TO 50 KT AND MINIMUM 
PRESSURE 997 MB.SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DEEP CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS WITHERED AWAY DUE TO THE
EFFECTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR...COLD WATER AND LAND INTERACTION WITH 
THE BAJA PENINSULA. PAUL WILL BECOME A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY AND
THEN TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY THU MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 13N88W TO 15N106W. THE ITCZ AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM 16N115W TO 09N129W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 121W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 
ITCZ AXIS W OF 136W. 

...DISCUSSION...

EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA AT 16/2030 UTC SHOWED CYCLONIC WINDS 
20 KT OR MORE ASSOCIATED WITH PAUL EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO 19N. 
ALTIMETER PASSES AT 16/2100 UTC ALSO SHOWED 8-12 FT SEAS FROM 
THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTHWARD TO AROUND 14N. DUE TO 
THE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE PAST 12 
HOURS...EXPECT SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND SEAS TO HAVE SHIFTED MAINLY 
N OF 20N ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA BY THIS TIME...AND ALSO BELIEVE 
SEAS TO 9-10 FT ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA DUE TO SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FETCH DIRECTION UP THE SPINE
OF THE NARROW GULF PASSAGE. BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO 
RAPIDLY DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS WHAT REMAINS OF PAUL WEAKENS 
INTO A DIFFUSE CIRCULATION OFF THE NW COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

ELSEWHERE...SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N138W EXTENDS A 
RIDGE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF AREA...AND MODERATELY TIGHT 
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND T.S. PAUL IS SUPPORTING FRESH
N WINDS S OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH WIND-DRIVEN SEAS AND N-NW 
SWELL TO 10 FT EXTENDING S OF 30N INTO AN AREA N OF A LINE FROM 
28N115W TO 20N128W TO 20N134W. ENHANCED W-SW MONSOON FLOW S OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA IS ALSO SUPPORTING 6-7 FT SEAS IN A BROAD SWATH 
OF OCEAN FROM 07N TO 10N E OF 100W. LINGERING TRADE WIND SWELL 
TO 7-8 FT IS FOUND N OF THE ITCZ AXIS 13N TO 16N W OF 135W.

LOOKING AHEAD...MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WILL STEADILY
IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. BY FRI NIGHT...EXPECT BENIGN WIND
AND SEA CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA 
WITH WINDS 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 6 FT OR LESS EXCEPT FOR RANDOM 
ISOLATED SPOTS WHERE 15-20 KT WINDS AND 6-7 FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

$$
MUNDELL