000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161533
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE OCT 16 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE PAUL...CENTERED NEAR 23.8N 112.2 AT 16/1500 UTC IS 
MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE N-NE OR 15 DEGREES AT 17 FT. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES IS 970 MB. THE CENTER OF PAUL AS 
A HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE WEST COAST OF 
SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. PAUL IS EXPECTED TO 
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AND WEAKEN TO A 
REMNANT LOW AFTERWARD. SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL WILL CONTINUE TO 
AFFECT THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. 
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP 
CURRENT CONDITIONS. A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO 
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN 
AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE 
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE 
WAVES. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF 
THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
ELSEWHERE FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 109W AND 113W. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N86W TO 11N10OW TO 
13N104W RESUMES S OF PAUL FROM 15N115W TO 08N128W. ITCZ AXIS 
CONTINUES FROM 08N128W TO 09N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS NOTED FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 96W AND 107W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 14N TO 
17N BETWEEN 110W AND 113W AND FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 113W AND 
120W. 

...DISCUSSION...

SCATTEROMETER DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW AN ELONGATED TAIL OF FRESH 
TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS EXTENDING FAR TO THE S AND SW OF 
HURRICANE PAUL TO 120W AS ENHANCED MONSOONAL FLOW FEEDS INTO THE 
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS WIND PATTERN HAS BEEN MOVING IN TANDEM 
WITH PAUL...AND IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AS PAUL CONTINUES TO 
APPROACH TO BAJA CALIFORNIA. ALSO EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND 
BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH PORTIONS OF THE GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA TODAY AS PAUL CLOSES IN THE COAST. 

FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL N OF 
THE MONSOON TROUGH TO AROUND 20N AND WEST OF 135W...WITH SEAS OF 
8 FT. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SUBTROPICAL HIGH REMAINING NEARLY 
STATIONARY NEAR 31N142W THROUGH TONIGHT THEN SHIFTING NE AS A 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...THEN 
REDEVELOPING NEAR 33N139W ON THU...WHILE THE REMNANTS OF PAUL 
DRIFT WEST OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA FRI AND SAT AS A 
WEAKENING TROUGH OF LOW PRES.

$$
GR