000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160300
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE OCT 16 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

PAUL...THE FIFTH MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...IS CENTERED 
NEAR 20.0N 113.6 AT 16/0300 UTC MOVING N-NE OR 015 DEGREES AT 15 
KT. PAUL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE IN THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON 
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 100 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 120 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES IS 963 MB. BY 
TUE NIGHT...SLOW WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED AS IT MOVES 
NORTHWARD TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER COOLER WATERS...DRIER AIR 
AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ALOFT. ON THE NHC OFFICIAL 
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAUL IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE 
WEST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY AND THE 
CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY. SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL 
ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL COASTS OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT...AND MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF 
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM S AND 60 NM N 
SEMICIRCLES OF PAUL CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
IS SEEN ELSEWHERE FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 111W AND 115W. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N85W TO 10N100W TO 
12N105W RESUMES SW OF PAUL FROM 14N118W TO 10N134W. ITCZ AXIS 
FROM 10N134W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE NEAR 10N98W AND NEAR 
10.5N105W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 114W AND 
120W. 

...DISCUSSION...

SCATTEROMETER DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW AN ELONGATED TAIL OF FRESH 
TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS EXTENDING FAR TO THE SW OF HURRICANE 
PAUL TO 120W AS EVIDENCE OF ENHANCED MONSOONAL FLOW FEEDING INTO 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS WIND PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST 
AS PAUL CONTINUES TO APPROACH TO BAJA CALIFORNIA. EXPECT ALSO 
INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH 
PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON TUE. 

MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL N OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH WEST OF 125W...WITH SEAS 6-8 FT EXCEPT FOR A 
SMALL AREA OF 8-9 FT FT SEAS AT THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE 
TROUGH FROM 11N TO 18N W OF 135W. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 
SUBTROPICAL HIGH REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR 30N140W 
THROUGH TUE THEN SHIFTING NE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES INTO 
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH MID-WEEK...THEN REDEVELOPING NEAR 
33N139W ON THU...WHILE THE REMNANTS OF PAUL DRIFT WEST OF 
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AS A WEAKENING TROUGH OF LOW PRES.

HIGH PRES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING SE ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN GULF WATERS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH GAP WINDS 
SPREADING INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC N OF 15N THROUGH TUE 
MORNING.

$$
GR