000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150953
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON OCT 15 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE PAUL CENTERED NEAR 16.2N 114.9W AT 0900 UTC MOVING N 
OR 010 DEGREES AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS TO 
80 KT AND ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 988 MB. PAUL IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY FURTHER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD. BY 
TUE NIGHT...INCREASED SHEAR...COOLER WATERS AND DRIER AIR WILL 
CAUSE PAUL TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA. SWELLS 
GENERATED BY PAUL ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE SOUTH AND 
CENTRAL COASTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT...AND MAY CAUSE LIFE- 
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NUMEROUS MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FOUND ELSEWHERE FROM 14N 
TO 18N BETWEEN 110W AND 117W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 10N101W TO 
13N105W...THEN RESUMES SW OF HURRICANE PAUL FROM 13N120W TO 
09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE 
TROUGH E OF 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S 
OF THE TROUGH W OF 120W. 

...DISCUSSION...

SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS AN ELONGATED TAIL OF FRESH TO STRONG S 
TO SW WINDS EXTENDING FAR TO THE W-SW OF HURRICANE PAUL TO 124W 
AS EVIDENCE OF ENHANCED MONSOONAL FLOW FEEDING INTO THE TROPICAL 
CYCLONE. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL N 
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WEST OF 115W...WITH SEAS 6-8 FT EXCEPT FOR 
A SMALL AREA OF 8-9 FT FT SEAS AT THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE 
TROUGH FROM 11N TO 16N W OF 135W. 

HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS WEAKENING AND SHIFTING E 
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS. HIGH PRES BEHIND 
THE COLD FRONT OVER TEXAS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO 
STRONG GAP WINDS SPREADING INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC N OF 15N 
THIS MORNING THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

EXPECT PAUL TO CONTINUE TO DRAG THE MONSOON TROUGH POLEWARD TODAY
BUT AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES N OF 20N THE TROUGH WILL SETTLE
BACK AND REALIGN ITSELF BETWEEN 10-15N BY TUE EVENING. GFS MODEL 
GUIDANCE SHOWS SUBTROPICAL HIGH REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR 
33N139W THROUGH TUE THEN SHIFTING NE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH MID-WEEK...THEN REDEVELOPING 
NEAR 33N139W ON THU...WHILE THE REMNANTS OF PAUL DRIFT WEST OF 
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AS A WEAKENING TROUGH OF LOW PRES. GFS 
MODEL ALSO SHOWS INCREASED VORTICITY S OF CENTRAL AMERICA LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR 10N90W
BY WED OR THU.

$$
MUNDELL