000 AXPZ20 KNHC 150252 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON OCT 15 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM PAUL CENTERED NEAR 15.8N 115.3W AT 15/0300 UTC MOVING NW OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND HAS INCREASED TO 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES IS 991 MB. PAUL IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT AND BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS...REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KT BY MON EVENING. IN FACT...AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE IS TRYING TO FORM TONIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...INCREASED SHEAR...COOLER WATERS AND DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY CAUSE PAUL TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA. SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL COASTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BY MONDAY NIGHT. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 30 NM OF PAUL CENTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 114 AND 117W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 107W AND 115W...AND FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 112W AND 118W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N85W TO 09N95W TO 12N102W THEN RESUMES SW OF T.S. PAUL FROM 13N118W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 88W AND 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 102W AND 104W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH W OF 120W. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN BAJA TO 25N128W...DRIFTING SE WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO CUT-OFF AND STALL NEAR 25N120W BY LATE MON AS DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS OVER ROUGHLY 30N140W. SW WINDS OF 70-90 KT ARE NOTED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER NW MEXICO. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND IMPLIED DRY AIR MASS COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 120W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS HELPING TO INDUCE SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH W OF 120W. AT LOW LEVELS...SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED THAT A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW FLOW IS CONVERGING INTO PAUL...MAINLY N OF 07N BETWEEN 110W AND 125W. MODELS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WIND PATTERN WILL PERSIST AS PAUL CONTINUES TO MOVE NWD APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE SLY FLOW WILL ALSO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH BUILDING SEAS BY TUE. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE BLOWING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A 1024 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 32N140W COVERING THE AREA FROM 11N TO 20N W OF 130W. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF THESE WIND SPEEDS. AN E TO W RIDGE ALONG 31N/32N WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 10N W OF 125W THROUGH MID WEEK. OUTSIDE THE WAVES GENERATED BY TROPICAL CYCLONE PAUL...THE REGIONAL WATERS CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY RESIDUAL NW SWELL MAINLY W OF 110W AND PRIMARILY SW SWELL E OF 110W. A NEW ROUND OF NW SWELL WILL PUSH INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA COVERING THE WATERS NW OF LINE FROM 30N121W TO 20N135W BY TUE MORNING. HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS WEAKENING AND SHIFTING E AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT REACHING THE COAST OF TEXAS CURRENTLY. ADDITIONAL HIGH PRES WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT AND SETTLE OVER TEXAS BY MON AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR PUSHES DOWN THE WESTERN GULF BEHIND THE FRONT AND INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS BEGINNING EARLY MON MORNING AND INTO EARLY TUE MORNING. $$ GR