000 AXPZ20 KNHC 142135 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN OCT 14 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM PAUL CENTERED NEAR 15.4N 115.2W AT 14/2100 UTC MOVING NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT GUSTS TO 60 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES IS 999 MB. PAUL IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH MON AFTERNOON AND BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BY MON NIGHT... INCREASED SHEAR...COOLER WATERS AND DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY CAUSE PAUL TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA. SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL COASTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BY MONDAY NIGHT. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF PAUL CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 114 AND 118W. A BAND OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NE OF CENTER FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 107W AND 114W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 08N96W TO 11N101W THEN RESUMES SW OF T.S. PAUL FROM 12N118W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 86W AND 92W AND BETWEEN 97W AND 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH W OF 120W. ...DISCUSSION... SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED THAT A BROAD AREA OF FRESH S TO SW FLOW IS CONVERGING INTO PAUL...MAINLY N OF 07N BETWEEN 110W AND 122W. MODELS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WIND PATTERN WILL PERSIST AS PAUL CONTINUES TO MOVE NWD. THE SLY FLOW WILL ALSO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY TUE BUILDING SEAS THERE. MEANWHILE...LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF SE WINDS AROUND THE E SIDE OF PAUL AND FRESH NW TO N FLOW OFF THE BAJA COAST ARE PRODUCING THE BAND OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. FARTHER N...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN BAJA TO 23N125W...DRIFTING SE WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO CUT-OFF AND STALL NEAR 25N120W BY LATE MON AS DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS OVER ROUGHLY 30N140W. A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED ON A HIGH PRES NEAR 30N140W WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 10N W OF 125W THROUGH MID WEEK. RESIDUAL NW SWELL WITH SEAS TO 9 FT FROM 11N TO 20N W OF 120W WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH 36 HOURS...LEAVING MAINLY NE SWELL UP TO 8 FT AT TIMES COVERING THE AREA N OF 10N W TO 125W THROUGH LATE MON. A NEW ROUND OF NW SWELL WILL PUSH INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA COVERING THE WATERS N OF 22N W OF 125W BY MON NIGHT. HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS WEAKENING AND SHIFTING E AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TEXAS CURRENTLY. ADDITIONAL HIGH PRES WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT AND SETTLE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BY LATE MON AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR PUSHES DOWN THE WESTERN GULF BEHIND THE FRONT AND INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TUE NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS LATE MON NIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUE MORNING. AN ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH IS SEEN W OF 120W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS HELPING TO INDUCE THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. $$ GR