000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141554
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN OCT 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM PAUL CENTERED NEAR 14.8N 115.1W AT 1500 UTC MOVING
W OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS TO 
55 KT AND ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRES 1001 MB. PAUL IS EXPECTED TO 
INTENSIFY THROUGH MON AFTERNOON AND BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER 48 HOURS...INCREASED SHEAR AND COOLER 
WATERS WILL LIKELY CAUSE PAUL TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES BAJA 
CALIFORNIA. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 
NM IN THE W SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 19N106W TO 19N115W. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N86W TO 09N100W RESUMES SW OF T.S. PAUL 
FROM 11N117W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 
180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 85W AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH 
BETWEEN 95W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM 
N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 125W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

SCATTEROMETER DATA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS HAS BEEN 
INDICATING A BROAD AREA OF FRESH SW FLOW CONVERGING INTO 
PAUL...MAINLY N OF 07N BETWEEN 105W AND 120W. A JASON 1 
ALTIMETER PASS FROM AROUND 11 UTC SHOWED SEAS 8 TO 9 FT SEAS 
APPROXIMATELY 300 NM W OF THE CENTER OF PAUL. SEAS ARE LIKELY 
REACHING 8 FT WELL S OF THE CENTER OF PAUL AS WELL IN THE AREA 
OF FRESH SW FLOW...WITH A BROAD ARC OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE WINDS 
WITHIN 360 NM SE OF THE CENTER OF PAUL. MEANWHILE...LOWER LEVEL 
CONVERGENCE OF SE WINDS AROUND THE E SIDE OF PAUL AND FRESH NW 
TO N FLOW OFF THE BAJA COAST ARE INITIATING A LINE SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 19N106W 
TO 19N115W. 

FARTHER N...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
NORTHERN BAJA TO 23N125W...DRIFTING SE WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO 
CUT-OFF AND STALL NEAR 25N120W BY LATE MON AS DEEP LAYER RIDGE 
BUILDS OVER ROUGHLY 30N140W. A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED UNDER THE 
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD E-W ALONG 35W...MAINTAINING FRESH TRADE 
WIND FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 10N W OF 125W THROUGH MID 
WEEK. RESIDUAL NW SWELL WITH SEAS TO 9 FT FROM 10N TO 19N W OF 
125W WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH 36 HOURS...LEAVING MAINLY NE 
SWELL UP TO 8 FT AT TIMES COVERING THE AREA N OF 10N W TO 125W 
THROUGH LATE MON. A NEW ROUND OF NW SWELL WILL PUSH INTO THE NW 
CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA COVERING THE AREA N OF 27N E OF 
135W BY MON NIGHT. 

HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS WEAKENING AND SHIFTING E 
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TEXAS CURRENTLY. ADDITIONAL 
HIGH PRES WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT AND SETTLE OVER THE 
NORTHERN GULF BY LATE MON AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR PUSHES DOWN 
THE WESTERN GULF BEHIND THE FRONT AND INTO THE ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC TUE NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG 
GAP WINDS LATE MON NIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.

CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARE NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 100W. THIS IS RELATED TO A SHARP 
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN TO AROUND 08N98W. 
THIS CONVECTION IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGN OF DIMINISHING...AND 
WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES FARTHER WAY FROM THE 
SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH AND INTO NE SUBSIDENT SHEAR ALOFT.

$$
CHRISTENSEN