000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140938
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN OCT 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM PAUL CENTERED NEAR 14.3N 114.5W AT 0900 UTC MOVING
W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS TO 
55 KT AND ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRES 1001 MB. PAUL IS EXPECTED TO 
INTENSIFY THROUGH MON AFTERNOON AND BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER 48 HOURS...INCREASED SHEAR AND COOLER 
WATERS WILL LIKELY CAUSE PAUL TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES BAJA 
CALIFORNIA. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 
NM W AND NW OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 14N110W TO 10N115W. 
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 10N101W THEN 
RESUMES SW OF PAUL FROM 12N115W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 
85W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM N OF 
TROUGH BETWEEN 126W AND 136W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER NW PORTION OF THE AREA 
FROM 31N133W TO 25N140W. SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 32N127W 
AND 31N141W. A WEAKENING RIDGE COVERS NORTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF 
AREA NW OF T.S. PAUL WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD 
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM 33N114W TO 27N108W. 
SCATTEROMETER WINDS SHOW MODERATE NE TRADE WINDS POLEWARD OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH TO AROUND 23N W OF 110W. MODERATE SW MONSOON WINDS
PREVAIL EQUATORWARD OF THE MONSOON TROUGH W OF 100W. EXPECT THE
TRADE WINDS TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHIFTS N 
OF THE AREA. MONSOONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH 
MON AS PAUL INTENSIFIES AND MOVES MOVES N TOWARD BAJA PENINSULA. 
THIS WILL EXPAND AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS 
MAINLY IN SW SEMICIRCLE OUT TO 360 NM FROM THE CENTER OF PAUL.

PERSISTENT STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO 
ALLOW FRESH TO STRONG GAP WIND FLOW TO PULSE THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC...PRIMARILY DURING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

$$
MUNDELL