000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140245
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN OCT 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM PAUL IS CENTERED NEAR 14.2N 114.1W AT 14/0300Z
MOVING WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 55 KT. PAUL IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 
24-48 HOURS...REACHING HURRICANE STATUS BY SUN EVENING...AND 
PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KT BY MON EVENING. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE 
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND WATERS COOL TO MARGINAL LEVELS 
ALONG THE EXPECTED TRACK. THESE FACTORS SHOULD INDUCE A 
WEAKENING AS PAUL APPROACHES TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED IN A BAND TO THE W OF CENTER 
AND WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 16N114W TO 14.5N115W 
TO 13.5N114.5W AND WITHIN 30 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 19N BETWEEN 
108W AND 116W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 
08N93W TO 10N98W THEN RESUMES W OF T.S. PAUL FROM 12N116W TO 
11N130W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 
150 NM SW QUADRANT OF LOW PRES NEAR 08N93W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO 
STRONG N OF TROUGH TO 10N BETWEEN 92W AND 98W. CLUSTER OF 
MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 12.5N97W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 
NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 128W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA TO 24N125W...DRIFTING SE WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO 
CUT-OFF AND STALL NEAR 25N120W BY EARLY SUN AS A MID TO UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ALONG 135W N OF 25N. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH 
WAS PROVIDING SUPPORT TO A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT NOW 
EXTENDS AS A FRONTAL TROUGH FROM 30N132W TO 26N140W. LIGHT WINDS 
ARE NOTED ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 1024 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 34N126W 
AND LOW PRES OVER NW MEXICO IS RESULTING IN FRESH NLY FLOW OFF 
THE COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA...AS NOTED IN LATEST SCATTEROMETER 
PASSES...AND FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS. SIMILARLY FRESH NW FLOW IS 
BLOWING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
MAINLY BETWEEN 24N AND 29N. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH 
OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH PRES WILL MERGE WITH HIGH PRES BEHIND THE 
FRONTAL TROUGH AND REORGANIZE NEAR 32N130W BY SUN AFTERNOON. 

SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF FRESH TO STRONG 
TRADE WINDS BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND T.S. PAUL COVERING 
THE REGION FROM 11N TO 16N W OF 125W. MEANWHILE RESIDUAL NW 
SWELL ALONG WITH FRESH NE TRADES WILL MAINTAIN COMBINED SEAS TO 
9 FT. THE AERIAL EXTENT OF THE TRADES IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE 
THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 8 FT IN MIXED NW AND NE 
SWELL. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE N WATERS 
IN 48 HOURS...PARTICULARLY N OF 24N BETWEEN 122W AND 128W AS 
PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN TROPICAL CYCLONE PAUL AND A 1022 
MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 30N140W. 

PERSISTENT STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO 
ALLOW FRESH TO STRONG GAP WIND FLOW TO PULSE THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC...PRIMARILY DURING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

$$
GR