000 AXPZ20 KNHC 132147 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT OCT 13 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WAS LOCATED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH ABOUT SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS ACQUIRED A WELL-DEFINED CENTER AND SUFFICIENT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...NAMED PAUL. AT 13/2100 UTC...PAUL IS CENTERED NEAR 14.0N 113.6W MOVING WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWARD MOTION BY MONDAY. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST BRINGS PAUL NEAR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN ABOUT 4 TO 5 DAYS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PAUL IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... REACHING HURRICANE STATUS BY MON. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND WATERS COOL TO MARGINAL LEVELS ALONG THE EXPECTED TRACK. THESE FACTORS SHOULD INDUCE A WEAKENING AS PAUL APPROACHES TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM W AND 60 NM E SEMICIRCLES. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 112W AND 116W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 06N93W TO 08N97W THEN RESUMES W OF T.S. PAUL FROM 12N116W TO 11N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM W SEMICIRCLE OF LOW PRES NEAR 06N93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 122W AND 126W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 127W AND 134W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 23N128W...DRIFTING SE WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO CUT-OFF AND STALL NEAR 25N120W BY EARLY SUN AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ALONG 135W N OF 25N. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROVIDING SUPPORT TO A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N132W TO 26N140W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATED ON SUN AS THE UPPER SUPPORT SHIFTS EAST. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 1026 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 35N125W AND LOW PRES OVER NW MEXICO IS RESULTING IN FRESH NLY FLOW OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA...AS NOTED IN LATEST SCATTEROMETER PASSES...AND FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS. SIMILARLY FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NW FLOW WILL PERSIST IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH PRES WILL MERGE WITH HIGH PRES BEHIND THE DYING FRONT AND REORGANIZE NEAR 31N130W BY SUN AFTERNOON. SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND T.S. PAUL COVERING THE REGION FROM 11N TO 16N W OF 125W. MEANWHILE RESIDUAL NW SWELL ALONG WITH FRESH NE TRADES WILL MAINTAIN COMBINED SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. THE AERIAL EXTENT OF THE TRADES IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 8 FT IN MIXED NW AND NE SWELL. PERSISTENT STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO ALLOW FRESH TO STRONG GAP WIND FLOW TO PULSE THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...PRIMARILY DURING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. $$ GR