000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120920
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI OCT 12 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

1008 MB LOW EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 13N106W HAS 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM NW 
QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE 
FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE THIS
WEEKEND. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE THAT THE LOW WILL BECOME A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N81W TO 09N89W TO 13N94W TO 
LOW PRES NEAR 13N106W 1008 MB TO 11N112W TO 11N125W TO 09N135W. 
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N135W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE TROUGH 
BETWEEN 89W AND 100W...WITHIN 150 NM NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW NEAR 
13N106W...AND WITHIN 45 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 128W.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW PORTION EXTENDS FROM 34N132W TO 
27N143W. STATIONARY 1022 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 28N129W WILL 
WEAKEN THE FRONT AND PREVENT IT FROM MAKING MUCH HEADWAY INTO THE
DISCUSSION AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND BECOME A LOW 
PRES TROUGH BY FRI EVENING. HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN 
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL PRODUCE FRESH NW WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA FRI AND SAT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-6 FT S 
OF 26N BY FRI NIGHT. PERSISTENT HIGH PRES OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF 
OF MEXICO WILL INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH SUN MORNING. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LIMITED
WIND EVENT WITH PEAK WINDS PULSING TO 25-30 KT IN EARLY MORNING 
BUT NOT GENERATING SEAS MUCH GREATER THAN 8-9 FT EITHER IN THE 
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE HIGHER WINDS OR SPREADING DOWNSTREAM 
AS NORMALLY OCCURS IN STRONGER MORE PERSISTENT WIND EVENTS.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...SHOWING THE LOW NEAR
13N106W GAINING BETTER WIND/PRESSURE FIELD ORGANIZATION IN ABOUT 
48-72 HOURS THEN MOVING N-NE IN RESPONSE TO TROUGHING OVER BAJA 
CALIFORNIA. EXPECT THE MONSOON TROUGH TO RETAIN MODERATELY ACTIVE
CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND BETWEEN 110W AND 135W.

$$
MUNDELL