000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110330
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0335 UTC THU OCT 11 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 13N95W TO 11N128W. THE 
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 11N128W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF MONSOON TROUGH 
AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 108W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM S OF ITCZ AXIS W OF 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA AND ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 30N117W EXTENDING 
TO 25N128W THEN TO 26N132W. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA TO 
THE SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT WHILE A DISSIPATING SURFACE 
LOW...REMNANTS OF OLIVIA...IS CENTERED NEAR 12N128W. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER 
IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS IN THE N QUADRANT 
OF THE LOW. THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE BY THU. 

NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA FROM THE N CENTRAL 
PACIFIC. WAVEWATCH...EC WAVE AND UKMET WAVE OUTPUT INDICATE 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS REACHING 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED NW AND NE 
SWELL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 08N AND W OF 125W. 

E OF 110W...
AS IS TYPICAL WITHIN A MONSOON TROUGH...THERE ARE A FEW WEAK 
VORTICITY CENTERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FEATURE. GAP WINDS WILL 
INCREASE THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE TONIGHT AND 
PULSING THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MODEL GUIDANCE 
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THIS MAY PROVIDE ADDED IMPETUS FOR 
THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF THESE 
VORTICITY CENTERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. THIS AREA 
WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS. 
 
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AL