000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092120
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE OCT 09 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 12N97W TO 07N1118W. 
THE MONSOON TROUGH THEN RESUMES AT 14N123W TO 10N127W WHERE IT 
TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ AXIS TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 
85W AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 210 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 92W AND 110W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 110W AND 118W.

...DISCUSSION...

LOW PRES...THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE OLIVIA...IS 
CENTERED NEAR 15N123W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE NW 
QUADRANT OF THE LOW WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW 
AND HIGH PRESSURE TO ITS NW IS MAINTAINING A TIGHTER PRESSURE 
GRADIENT. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 
48 HOURS WITH THIS AREA OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND 
SEAS TO 9 FT IN THE NW QUADRANT.  

GAP WINDS...BASED ON THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER PASS...WINDS HAVE 
DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC BY THU.

WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING A 
SET OF NW SWELL THAT PROPAGATES INTO THE NW SECTION OF THE AREA 
BEGINNING ON WED. THIS IS RELATED TO A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT 
IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO THE N OF THE AREA BY THAT TIME. THE 
SWELLS ARE FORECAST TO PRODUCE SEAS OF UP TO 10 FT.
 
$$
AL