000 AXPZ20 KNHC 022158 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC TUE OCT 2 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2045 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE PANAMA/COLOMBIA BORDER AT 07N77W T0 08N82W...THEN TURNS NW TO 13N95W...THEN WESTWARD AGAIN TO 13N112W. THE MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES SW OF THE REMNANTS OF MIRIAM NEAR 15N117W AND CONTINUES SW TO 11N127W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES W THROUGH 10N136W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 08N E OF 84W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO OBSERVED N OF 10N TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN 90W AND 106W...AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINES FROM 09N103W TO 08N110W TO 11N114W...FROM 11N121W TO 08N126W AND FROM 11N130W TO 08N135W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS AT 33N135W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 13N134W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS AT 26N116W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING N BEYOND 32N119W CRESTING OVER THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS SW TO A CREST OVER THE TROPICS AT 16N130W. WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS NOTED S OF THE UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ BETWEEN 106W AND 136W. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE SEEMS TO EVAPORATE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CLUSTERS AS THE UPPER LEVELS ARE VERY DRY OVER THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 106W. AN UPPER CYCLONE OVER TEXAS HAS AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO TO A BASE AT 19N105W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NW FROM S AMERICA ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS TO THE S OF 10N E OF 91W AND IS ADVECTING UPPER MOISTURE W ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA E OF 84W. MOISTURE FROM THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED TO THE N OF 10N BETWEEN 90W AND 106W IS SPREADING NE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ELSEWHERE AT THE LOW LEVELS A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE ANALYZED FROM 34N137W TO 31N130W AND FROM 22N138W TO 29N136W. THESE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE THAT COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 120W. THE 1010 MB REMNANT LOW OF MIRIAM IS AT 17N117W AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 HOURS IN THE MONSOON TROUGH TO ITS SW. SW LOW LEVEL WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT AND CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL COMBINE RESULTING IN SEAS TO 9 FT IN THE AREA FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 98W AND 123W. THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO SHRINK FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 105W AND 113W WITH SEAS TO 8 FT BY LATE THU. GAP WINDS...HIGH PRES BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF A GULF OF MEXICO STALLED FRONT HAS ALREADY SURGED AT 20 TO 25 KT INTO AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 16N94.5W TO 14N97W...WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. EXPECT THESE NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 12 FT ON WED. THE AREA OF NE TO E WINDS WILL EXPAND W ACROSS THE AREA FROM 12.5N TO 15N BETWEEN 96.5W AND 112W THROUGH THU. THE GRADIENT WILL ALSO INCREASE OVER THE W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SURGING INTO AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AT 20 TO 25 KT BEGINNING WED NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THU. $$ NELSON