000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012126
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON OCT 01 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2030 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 9N82W 8N87W 12N95W 10N105W 13N116W 
TO 10N130W THEN ITCZ EXTENDS TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 89W AND 98W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 100W 
AND 107W AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH 
BETWEEN 119W AND 122W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N136W TO 24N139W PRESENTS ONLY A 
SLIGHT DISRUPTION IN AN EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT COVERS 
A LARGE PORTION OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN N OF 20N W OF 122W. A 
SECOND WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N104W TO 12N103W GENERATING 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 
18N BETWEEN 102W AND 106W. THE REMNANT LOW OF MIRIAM CONTINUES 
TO WEAKEN NEAR 17N115W AND IS EXPECTED BECOME A DIFFUSE TO AN 
OPEN TROUGH BY TUE NIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ARE NEARLY 
EVERYWHERE IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL 
AREA OF MODERATE TRADE WINDS FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 133W AND 
140W. PERSISTENT CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL OF 6-7 FT ALONG WITH 
15-20 KT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 99W TO 120W IS GENERATING 
A SMALL AREA OF 8 FT COMBINED SEAS FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 98W 
AND 107W. AN AREA OF 8 FT N-NW SWELL IN NE PORTION N OF 26N 
BETWEEN 116W AND 122W.

EXPECT VERY LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OVER MOST OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION IN THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC. A COLD FRONT IN THE W GULF OF MEXICO HAS REACHED 
THE S GULF AND WITH STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BEGIN BUILDING BEHIND 
THE FRONT TO OVER SW MEXICO. THIS WILL BRING FRESH TO STRONG N 
TO NE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY EARLY TUE AND CONTINUE 
IN VARYING STRENGTH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEAKER WINDS DURING 
EVENING HOURS WILL PEAK 25-30 KT DURING THE EARLY MORNING EACH 
DAY THROUGH FRI. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-11 FT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY WED. CYCLONIC VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH 
THIS AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS SPILLING OUT OF THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC MAY HELP INDUCE DEVELOPMENT OF AREA OF LOW PRES S 
AND SW OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY MID-WEEK. GFS SHOWS A LOW 
INTENSIFYING NEAR 11N101W WED NIGHT AND MOVING W-NW THROUGH SAT.

$$
PAW