000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010933 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON OCT 01 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 13N87W TO 10N98W TO 07N112W THEN RESUMES FROM 12N114W TO 11N128W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N128W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 84W AND 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 99W AND 103W...AND ALSO FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 104W AND 107W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 12N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 121W AND 123W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER 21N114W WITH UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 13N E OF 125W. RIDGING IS BUILDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND BAJA CALIFORNIA COASTS. THIS ANTICYCLONE SEPARATES TWO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS ON EITHER SIDE OF IT...THE WESTERN TROUGH STEMMING FROM AN UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 29N134W TO 10N135W...AND THE EASTERN TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE U.S. CENTRAL PLAINS TO CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 19N111W. THIS UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH DIGS S AND SE INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. A VIGOROUS TUTT LOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF HONDURAS EXTENDS A TUTT AXIS S ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE HAS DEVELOPED BETWEEN THE TUTT LOW AND THE W END OF THE TUTT YIELDING GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 103W. THIS IS SUPPORTING CONVECTION AS IS DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE TUTT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TODAY WITH STABILIZING CONDITIONS ALOFT BETWEEN 90W AND 100W BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG NE-SW ORIENTED HIGH PRES RIDGE REMAINS WELL N AND NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...EXTENDING FROM A 1030 MB HIGH WELL OFFSHORE OF OREGON NEAR 44N134W...WITH A RIDGE REACHING FROM THERE SW TO 25N150W. A WEAK RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC N OF 15N W OF 118W. THE 1011 MB REMNANT LOW PRES CENTER OF MIRIAM REMAINS EASILY DISCERNIBLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 18N115W AND IT IS DRIFTING SSW. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWED LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AROUND AND NEAR THE LOW. ELSEWHERE...MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY BENIGN WITH PRIMARILY LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS DUE TO WEAK HIGH PRES...WHILE MONSOONAL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE GENERALLY 15 TO 20 KT. THE EXCEPTION IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 95W AND 107W WHERE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 9 FT ARE PRESENT. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. SEAS ARE MAINLY 5-7 FT OVER MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH A FEW COMPROMISES. THE FIRST BEING LINGERING CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL OVER THE WATERS S OF 02N BETWEEN 110W AND 130W. THIS SWELL WILL BE REINVIGORATED BY A NEW SET OF SW SWELL PUSHING 8-9 FT SEAS UP TO 06N BY 24 HOURS AND THEN TO 10N BY 48 HOURS. EARLIER ALTIMETER PASSES ALSO FOUND AN AREA OF 8-9 FT SEAS IN NW SWELL N OF 26N BETWEEN 117W AND 126W. THIS SWELL WILL DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY 24 HOURS. ALSO...8 FT SEAS ARE PRESENT OVER THE FAR W CENTRAL WATERS FROM 14N TO 20N W OF 136W AS CAPTURED BY A 0230 UTC ALTIMETER PASS. THESE SEAS WERE GENERATED BY FRESH TRADES WHICH HAVE WEAKENED TO MODERATE. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND IT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE SW GULF LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND SE MEXICO WHICH WILL BE A FAVORABLE SET UP FOR A MINOR GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO COMMENCE EARLY TUE...PULSING TO 30 KT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRI. THESE WINDS WILL BUILD DOWNSTREAM SEAS TO 8-12 FT BY EARLY THU. THIS ENERGY MAY HELP TO INDUCE THE FORMATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF LOW PRES S AND SW OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. $$ LEWITSKY