000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301604
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN SEP 30 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 11N91W TO 
10N105W...RESUMES FROM 15N115W TO 11N128W...THEN ITCZ AXIS FROM 
11N128W TO 09N134W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH E OF 99W.

...DISCUSSION...

A STRONG NE-SW ORIENTED HIGH PRES RIDGE N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
EXTENDS FROM W OF OREGON NEAR 44N132W TO 35N145W. A WEAK RIDGE 
PREVAILS OVER THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC N OF 20N W OF 118W. LOW 
PRES REMNANT OF MIRIAM BARELY HANGING ON AS NOTEWORTHY SURFACE 
FEATURE NEAR 20N114W. MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY BENIGN OVER 
REST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AS SW 
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUE TO DECREASE 
BETWEEN 105W AND 125W. SEAS ARE GENERALLY AROUND 6-7 FT OVER 
NEARLY ALL OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...EXCEPT FOR NW CORNER WHERE 
FRESH NE WINDS AND LINGERING LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ARE PRODUCING 
SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FT NW OF A LINE FROM 30N130W TO 16N140W.

BEYOND 48 HOURS...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE 
GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS WEEK. HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE 
FRONT OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL BE A FAVORABLE SET UP FOR A 
MINOR GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT...EXPECTED TO COMMENCE 
TUE NIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL THEN PULSE TO 20-30 KT IN THE EARLY 
MORNINGS ON EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST THU.

$$
MUNDELL