000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300932
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN SEP 30 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N79W TO 12N92W TO 08N105W TO 
13N112W THEN RESUMES FROM 15N117W TO 10N130W. THE INTERTROPICAL 
CONVERGENCE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N130W TO 09N133W TO 10N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
120-180 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 84W AND 95W.

...DISCUSSION...

A TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN AT UPPER LEVELS COVERS THE 
MAJORITY OF THE AREA N OF 16N. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE 
IN THIS PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. IN FACT...MODELS SHOW 
ALL THREE OF THESE FEATURES AMPLIFYING DURING THAT TIME...WITH 
THE UPPER RIDGING BUILDING SHARPLY N ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST OF 
CALIFORNIA.

THE 1010 MB REMNANT LOW OF NORMAN REMAINS LOCATED OVER THE 
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NEAR 25.5N111.5W. ASSOCIATED 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15-20 KT AT MOST WITH A SHIP WITH 
CALL-SIGN C6VG7 MOVING SOUTHWARD W OF THE PENINSULA REPORTING 15 
KT WINDS AND 2-3 FT SEAS JUST OFFSHORE. THIS REMNANT LOW WILL 
GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN AND DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT 
CONTINUES TO DRIFT WSW AND OVER THE PENINSULA. 

THE 1009 MB REMNANT LOW OF MIRIAM NEAR 20.5N114W IS FORECAST TO 
MOVE SW REACHING TO 13.5N118W BY 48 HOURS. A 0518 UTC ASCAT PASS 
WENT RIGHT OVER THE CIRCULATION AND INDICATED ONLY 5-10 KT WINDS 
AROUND THE LOW. SEAS ARE ESTIMATED TO HAVE DECAYED TO LESS THAN 
8 FT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.

MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E WINDS WERE SAMPLED BY A RECENT WINDSAT 
SCATTEROMETER PASS OVER THE W CENTRAL PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA...OTHERWISE LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER 
OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS.

A SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SE OVER THE 
NW WATERS. AN EARLIER ALTIMETER PASS MEASURED 8-10 FT 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE AREA. THIS SWELL IS FORECAST TO 
GRADUALLY DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY 48 HOURS. AN AREA OF 
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL OF 8-9 FT REMAINS OVER THE S CENTRAL 
WATERS S OF 06N BETWEEN 100W AND 125W. THIS SWELL IS FORECAST TO 
SHRINK IN COVERAGE TO S OF 02N WHILE SUBSIDING TO 8 FT BY 24 
HOURS...WITH A REINFORCING SET OF SW SWELL BREACHING THE EQUATOR 
BY 48 HOURS AND ADVANCING NORTHWARD UP TO 04N.

BEYOND 48 HOURS...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE 
GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS WEEK. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN 
FROM THE N BEHIND THE FRONT OVER MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO WHICH WILL BE A FAVORABLE SET UP FOR A MINOR GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT...EXPECTED TO COMMENCE TUE NIGHT. 
THESE WINDS WILL THEN PULSE TO 20-30 KT IN THE EARLY MORNINGS ON 
EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST THU.

$$
LEWITSKY