000 AXPZ20 KNHC 300243 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN SEP 30 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0200 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH FROM 11N74W TO 13N82W TO 08N100W TO 13N108W WHERE IT REMAINS FRACTURED...THEN RESUMES FROM TO 17N115W TO 10N130W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO 10.5N137W TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 60 NM N AND 180 NM S OF TROUGH E OF 108W. ...DISCUSSION... A TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN AT UPPER LEVELS COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA N OF 15N THIS EVENING. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. IN FACT... MODELS SHOW ALL 3 FEATURES AMPLIFYING DURING THAT TIME...WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING SHARPLY N ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NORMAN WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 111.0W AT 00 UTC AND DRIFTING SLOWLY TOWARD THE W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 KT IN SHOWERS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1007 MB. THE SMALL LOW LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL WAS BECOMING SOMEWHAT ELONGATED NNW TO SSE AND SLOWLY NUDGING UP AGAINST THE E COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. MODERATE LOW TOPPED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING WITHIN ABOUT 75 NM ACROSS THE SW SEMICIRCLE OF THIS LOW...AND LEAVING MODEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THAT PORTION OF THE PENINSULA AND ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS. THIS LOW LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL WILL GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN AND DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO DRIFT W TO WSW AND OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...THE VERY ACTIVE MARINE AND WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN RECENT DAYS HAVE GRADUALLY BECOMING FAIRLY BENIGN. THE DYING REMNANTS OF MIRIAM WERE DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY SE NEAR 21N114W WITH AN AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWING WINDS 15 KT W OF THE CENTER. SEAS ARE SUBSIDING IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW AS SW WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO AROUND 15 KT BETWEEN 105W AND 125W. MAXIMUM SEAS ARE ESTIMATED AT 9 FT NEAR 16N115W...S OF EX-MIRIAM. THE REMNANTS OF MIRIAM REMAIN THE CENTRAL ANCHOR POINT OF A BROAD LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDING FROM 18N TO 27N BETWEEN 108W AND 120W. THE REMNANT LOW OF NORMAN HAS BECOME CAPTURED WITHIN THIS CIRCULATION AND CONTINUES TO DRIFTING W TO W-SW ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THIS BROADER CIRCULATION. THIS FEATURE HAS DOMINATED THIS REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW BUT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SLIDE S THEN SW DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS N CENTRAL PORTIONS ALONG ABOUT 130W...AND WAS DIRECTLY BELOW THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE. THIS VERY WEAK TROUGH HAS RELAXED THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN 1023 MB HIGH PRES NW OF THE AREA NEAR 31N144W...AND BROAD LOW PRES DESCRIBED ABOVE OFF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. NW SWELL FROM A DISSIPATED COLD FRONT NW OF THE AREA IS MAINTAINING SEAS 8 TO 9 FT NW OF A LINE FROM 30N1280W TO 22N140W. SW CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IS ALSO PRESENT S OF 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 130W. SEA HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OF ENHANCED SW WINDS AROUND 20 KT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WHICH WILL INCREASE SEAS TO 8 FT FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 95W AND 103W BY MON. LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ALLOW HIGH PRES TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO MON NIGHT AND TUE... WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR A MINOR GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT TO COMMENCE TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THU NIGHT. NLY WIND ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO 20-30 KT IN THE EARLY MORNINGS ON EACH DAY. $$ STRIPLING