000 AXPZ20 KNHC 292214 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT SEP 29 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NORMAN WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 111.1W AT 2100Z MOVING TOWARD THE W AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. THEE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1007 MB. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED ONLY A SMALL LOW LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL ABOUT 75 NM WIDE REMAINED OF NORMAN...OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHEARING NORMAN YESTERDAY HAS MOVED EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MEXICO...AND SHEARED AWAY ALL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AND OCCURRING WELL SE OF NORMAN. THE REMNANTS OF NORMAN ARE CURRENTLY IN A VERY STABLE AND DRY MIDDLE TO UPPER ATMOSPHERE...AND THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL WILL GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN AND DISSIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO DRIFT W TO WSW AND OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. SEE THE LAST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY ON NORMAN UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH FROM 11N74W TO 13N82W TO 08N101W TO 13N108W WHERE IT REMAINS FRACTURED...THEN RESUMES FROM TO 15.5N118W TO 10N131W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO 10.5N137W TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 300 NM S OF TROUGH E OF 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 60 NM N AND 150 NM S OF TROUGH FROM 94W TO 108W. ...DISCUSSION... AFTER VERY ACTIVE MARINE AND WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN RECENT DAYS...CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING FAIRLY BENIGN OVER MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE DYING REMNANTS OF MIRIAM WERE DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY SE 21N114W WITH A MORNING SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWING WINDS 15-20 KT S OF THE CENTER. SEAS ARE SUBSIDING IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW AS SW WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO AROUND 15 KT BETWEEN 105W AND 125W. MAXIMUM SEAS ARE ESTIMATED AT 8-9 FT NEAR 15N118W AND IN THE SE QUADRANT OF EX-MIRIAM NEAR 20N114W. THE REMNANTS OF MIRIAM REMAIN THE CENTRAL ANCHOR OF A BROAD LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...EXTENDING FROM 18N TO 27N BETWEEN 108W AND 120W. THE REMNANT LOW OF NORMAN HAS BECOME CAPTURED WITHIN THIS CIRCULATION AND IS NOW DRIFTING W TO W-SW ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THIS BROADER CIRCULATION. THIS FEATURE HAS DOMINATED THIS REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW BUT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SLIDE SW DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE WAS CENTERED ACROSS THE N CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA NEAR 30N130W WITH TROUGH EXTENDING SW INTO THE DEEP TROPICS ALONG 142W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS REFLECTED DIRECTLY BELOW THE UPPER LOW...AND EXTENDS INTO N CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA ALONG 129W-130W. THIS VERY WEAK TROUGH HAS RELAXED THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES NW OF THE AREA NEAR 31N144W...AND BROAD LOW PRES DESCRIBED ABOVE OFF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. NW SWELL FROM A DISSIPATED COLD FRONT NW OF THE AREA IS MAINTAINING SEAS 8 TO 9 FT NW OF A LONE FROM 30N1320W TO 27N140W. SW CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IS ALSO PRESENT S OF 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 130W. SEA HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OF ENHANCED SW WINDS AROUND 20 KT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WHICH WILL INCREASE SEAS TO 8 FT FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 95W AND 103W BY MON. LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ALLOW HIGH PRES TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO MON NIGHT AND TUE WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR A MINOR GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WIND EVENT TO COMMENCE TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THU NIGHT...WITH WINDS PULSING TO 20-30 KT IN THE EARLY MORNING EACH DAY. $$ STRIPLING