000 AXPZ20 KNHC 150948 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT SEP 15 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM KRISTY CENTERED NEAR 21.8N 114.6W AT 0900 UTC MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT AND MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1001 MB. THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING WITH ONLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM OVER THE E AND 30 NM OVER THE W SEMICIRCLES OF KRISTY. KRISTY IS FORECAST TO TRACK IN A GENERAL NW DIRECTION OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE NEAR 25N118W ON SUN. SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM KRISTY IS MIXING WITH NW LONG PERIOD SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FT REACHING THE PACIFIC COAST THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM 24N TO 26N TODAY...WITH THESE CONDITIONS SHIFTING N TO ALONG THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE PENINSULA TONIGHT...THEN THE SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FT ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE PENINSULA LATE SUN. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 14N122W AN ESTIMATED OF 1005 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS BURST WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.5N124.5W TO 14N122W. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AS IT TRACKS W TO NEAR 14N124.5W TONIGHT...AND NEAR 16N127W SUN NIGHT. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 08N77W ACROSS WESTERN PANAMA AND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA TO 09N85W...THEN TURNS SLIGHTLY SW TO 08N95W...SLIGHTLY NW TO NEAR 10N115W WHERE IT LOSES IDENTITY. THE MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES SW OF TROPICAL CYCLONE KRISTY NEAR 17N116W...AND CONTINUES SW THROUGH EMBEDDED LOW PRESSURE CENTERS AT 14N122W AND 12N134W... THEN CONTINUES SW TO BEYOND 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N92W TO 14N103W...AND A LINE FROM 06N105W TO 09N118W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N124W TO 14N134W. ...DISCUSSION... A LONGWAVE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE EASTERN N PACIFIC STEMMING FROM AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED AT 25N127W AND RIDGING NE TO BEYOND 32N121W. AN UPPER RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS SW TO A CREST AT 12N145W. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED OVER THE NW PORTION WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER CYCLONE AT 29N140W...SETTING UP A SOUTHERLY JET AT 60 TO 90 KT OVER THE NW PORTION WITHIN 180 NM OF LINE FROM 23N140W TO 30N135W. WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 120W AND 140W...INCLUDING THE CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING THE TROPICAL LOW AT 14N122W. SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED SW TO ALONG 04N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W...AND SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ALSO ADVECTED N ACROSS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN 132W AND 137W...THEN THE NARROW PLUME OF MOISTURE TURNS NE TO NEAR 26N129W WHERE IT EVAPORATES IN THE VERY DRY THAT IS INDICATED OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 17N BETWEEN 117W AND 140W. THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NE TO NEAR 28N120W LATE SUN AS THE UPPER CYCLONE ALSO SHIFTS N TO NEAR 35N140W DRAGGING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EXTREME NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. IMMEDIATELY TO THE E OF THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE IS A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE OVER NEW MEXICO WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA INTO AN UPPER CYCLONE NEAR TROPICAL CYCLONE KRISTY...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING S TO NEAR 08N119W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG AND E OF THIS TROUGH HAS ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER INTERIOR NORTHWESTERN OLD MEXICO... OVER TROPICAL CYCLONE KRISTY...AND ALSO SEEMS TO A CONTRIBUTOR TO THE TROPICAL CONVECTION NEAR 09N114W. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE TO THE N OF 25N IS SPREADING NE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THEN ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND EVENTUALLY TURNING E ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE DENSE MOISTURE TO THE S OF 25N IS CONCENTRATES INTO A 500 NM WIDE PLUME WITH AXIS FROM 25N105W TO 04N118W. A BROAD INVERTED UPPER TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC TO THE S OF 16N BETWEEN 98W AND 108W...AND IS SHIFTING WESTWARD WITH TIME...AND WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH HE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY DESCRIBED ALONG 120W ON SUN. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AT 17N84W WITH ITS ENVELOPE OF UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE DISCUSSION AREA E OF 98W. THESE FEATURES COMBINE TO SET UP AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE TROPICAL PACIFIC TO THE E OF 105W. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE IS NOTED TO THE N OF 05N E OF 105W. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 122W. A SURFACE RIDGE HAS BECOME ORIENTATED FROM NNW TO SSE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF OLD MEXICO...AND IS PRODUCING NORTHERLY SURGES AT 20 TO 25 KT INTO...AND JUST DOWNSTREAM... OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH. NE TO E WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE AT 15 TO 20 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH MAX SEAS OF 7 FT JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. $$ NELSON