000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121540
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED SEP 12 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E CENTERED NEAR 16.7N 
106.0W 1005 MB AT 1500 UTC MOVING WNW AT 9 KT WITH MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT AND MINIMUM PRESSURE 1005 MB. 
THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF MONSOON 
TROUGH. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM 
N AND 120 NM S OF CENTER. ELEVEN-E IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NW AND 
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM BY 
THU MORNING. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 05N92W TO 
07N103W... THEN FROM 16N109W TO 11N127W. ITCZ FROM 11N127W TO 
08N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IN THE GULF OF PANAMA N OF 
04N E OF 81W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 150 NM N AND 60 NM S OF AXIS W OF 115W.

...DISCUSSION...
NEARLY STATIONARY SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 42N139W EXTENDS 
A WEAK RIDGE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. 
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT 
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO IN THE VICINITY OF TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E...WITHIN 300 NM N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE W 
OF 125W IN ENHANCED NE TRADE WIND FLOW...AND JUST W OF THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO IN FRESH TO STRONG E-NE GAP WINDS FUNNELING FROM THE 
WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA...BUILDING SEAS IN THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO AROUND 8 FT. 

FRESH NE WINDS WITH SEAS AROUND 7 FT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST N 
OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE W OF 130W THROUGH FRI. WINDS AND SEAS 
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO LATE 
TONIGHT AND THU...THEN INCREASE AGAIN FRI MORNING. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF STRONG N WINDS IS INDICATED IN GFS AND ECMWF MODELS IN THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING EARLY FRI...CONTINUING THROUGH FRI 
EVENING WITH WINDS TO 25-30 KT POSSIBLE.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...THE GFS MODEL SPINS UP A STRONG LOW PRES 
SYSTEM AT THE WESTERN END OF THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 13N130W BY 
FRI WHICH MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER THE ECMWF 
AND UKMET MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANCE FOR CYCLOGENESIS IN THIS AREA
AND MOVE THE DISTURBANCE WNW IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW. CONSEQUENTLY
HAVE HEDGED TOWARD EUROPEAN SOLUTION IN LONG TERM FORECAST GRIDS.

$$
MUNDELL