000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111503
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE SEP 11 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 14N101W IS MOVING W-NW 
AT 5-10 KT. EASTERLY WINDS TO 25 KT ARE IN THE NE SEMICIRCLE OF 
THE LOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 98W AND 102W. 
NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM N
QUADRANT OF THE LOW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MODERATELY 
FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS. THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHWEST ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO... 
AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N79W TO 07N88W TO LOW PRES NEAR 14N101W TO 
15N107W TO 11N118W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 94W AND 99W. SCATTERED
MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 112W AND 119W...AND 
WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 123W AND 133W.

...DISCUSSION...
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA EXTENDS A WEAK 
RIDGE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TO 
AROUND 117W. ENHANCED TRADE WIND FLOW N OF WESTERN PORTION OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF FRESH NE WINDS FROM 10N TO
20N W OF 125-130W. ASCAT SHOWS 20 KT WINDS CENTERED NEAR 14N135W 
AND ALTIMETER INDICATES SEAS ARE 7 FT IN AREA OF ENHANCED TRADES.
ALTIMETER PASSING OVER THE LOW PRES AREA CENTERED NEAR 14N101W 
INDICATED SEAS ARE 1-2 FT LOW THAN EXPECTED FROM WAVEWATCH MODEL 
GUIDANCE...SO HAVE TEMPERED SEA GRIDS A BIT AS A RESULT. LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS AND 5-7 FT SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE REGION.

$$
MUNDELL