000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090919
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN SEP 09 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 10N85W 14N95W 10N110W TO 10N127W. ITCZ 
FROM 10N127W 10N133W TO 6N140W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION N OF 5N BETWEEN 85W-90W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 103W-110W.
  
...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE FAR NW 
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 30N136W TO 25N133W. LARGE 
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 21N117W 
WITH RIDGE FROM THE CIRCULATION SW TO 15N140W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 15N W 
OF 115W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS N OF THE 
ANTICYCLONE OFF THE N COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 21N119W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
AND A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NE MEXICO IS ENHANCING STRONG 
CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO AND INLAND FROM 19N-24N 
BETWEEN 103W-108W. ALSO THE UPPER LEVELS ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT 
OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AND IS SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION ALONG THE 
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 84W TO 110W.

SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 15N AND W OF 110W. TRADES AROUND THE 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE HAVE INCREASED TO 20-25 KT FROM 
10N-16N W OF 130W. TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ WITH AXIS 
FROM 11N133W 6N139W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 150 
NM NW OF THE TROUGH AXIS S OF 10N.

$$
DGS