000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052134
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED SEP 05 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N84W TO 11N100W TO 08N121W TO 
09N131W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
09N131W TO 09N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
06N TO 10N BETWEEN 85W AND 91W...AND WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
A LINE FROM 12N91W TO 12N97W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 111W AND 115W.

...DISCUSSION...
DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF A LINE FROM 
20N140W TO 32N123W IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW 
CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 37N130W. REMAINING N OF 20N EAST 
OF THAT LINE...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
CENTERED IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 29N117W THAT IS 
ADVECTING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD BETWEEN 107W 
AND 120W. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...THE REMNANT OF JOHN IS CENTERED NEAR 
25N121W AND CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE GRADUALLY DUE TO EVER MORE 
COOLER WATERS THE FARTHER NORTHWEST IT TRACKS. THE LOW IS 
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH WINDS 
AND SEAS FALLING BELOW HIGH SEAS ADVISORY CRITERIA.

S OF 20N WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AREAS...MOSTLY 
EASTERLY FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ON THE SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED 
OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 18N95W. THIS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE AND MARGINALLY DIFFLUENT AREA FROM 05N TO 15N BETWEEN 
80W AND 110W IS GENERATING AREAS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION AND LIES WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH 
AXIS AND AREAS OF MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

FARTHER WEST...A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...THE REMNANT OF 
ILEANA...IS CENTERED NEAR 18N132W AND IS FORECAST TO DRIFT AND 
DISSIPATE TO A SURFACE TROUGH BY LATE THURSDAY. A SMALL WIND 
FIELD OF 20 TO 25 KT STILL EXISTS WITHIN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE 
AND THIS IS MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE REMAINING PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE LOW AND A STRONG SURFACE 1036 MB SURFACE HIGH 
CENTERED NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 44N145W. 

$$
HUFFMAN