000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271542
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON AUG 27 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

LOW PRES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS NEAR 15N105W 
WITH AN ESTIMATED PRESSURE OF 1007 MB IS MOVING W-NW AT 10 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 
NM OF THE LOW CENTER IN THE S AND SW QUADRANTS...AND WITHIN 150 
NM IN THE NW AND N QUADRANTS. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 
THIS LOW CONTINUES TO IMPROVE IN ORGANIZATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM 
HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 
48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N84W TO 11N97W TO 15N100W TO LOW 
PRES NEAR 15N105W AT 1007 MB TO 10N120W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N126W 
AT 1010 MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N134W AT 1011 MB TO 08N137W TO 
BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 97W TO 
124W AND 150 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 104W TO 108W. 

...DISCUSSION...

1020 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 31N129W WITH A BROAD RIDGE 
AXIS EXTENDING SE OF THE HIGH THROUGH 28N126W TO 22N115W. MAINLY 
LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS COVER THE WATERS N OF 12N 
UNDER THIS RIDGING AS INDICATED BY RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA.

THE AREA OF LOW PRES DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION 
ABOVE HAS FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER THIS 
MORNING ALONG WITH 8 FT SEAS. IN ADDITION...FRESH TO STRONG 
WINDS ARE ALSO OCCURRING FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W 
ALONG WITH SEAS TO 10 FT...WITH HEALTHY MONSOONAL FLOW S OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH AND LOW. THESE CONDITIONS WILL NOT VARY MUCH 
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WINDS 
DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW INCREASING TO 30 KT BY WED 
MORNING.

LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS TO 8 FT WILL COVER 
THE WATERS S OF 02N BETWEEN 120W AND 135W BY LATE TUE 
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN BUILDING TO 9 FT AS IT REACHES TO 
S OF 04N BETWEEN 110W AND 135W BY EARLY WED MORNING.

$$
LEWITSKY