000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270949 CCA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON AUG 27 2012

CORRECTED SPECIAL FEATURE PARAGRAPH

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

LOW PRES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS NEAR 14N104.5W 
WITH AN ESTIMATED PRESSURE OF 1007 MB IS MOVING WNW AT 5-10 KT. 
THIS LOW CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF SLOWLY IMPROVING CONVECTIVE 
ORGANIZATION. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW EXCEPT NE QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS. CURRENTLY...THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF 
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH LIES ALONG THE WEST COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA 
BETWEEN 78W AND 88W...THEN RESUMES FROM LOW PRES NEAR 14N103.5W  
TO 1011 MB LOW NEAR 11N126.5W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 110W AND 124W.

...DISCUSSION...

SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS ENHANCED W-SW WINDS IMMEDIATELY S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 104W AND 124W...WITH A LARGE AREA OF FRESH
SOUTHERLY WINDS FEEDING INTO THE TROUGH COVERING ROUGHLY FROM 06N
TO 09N BETWEEN 102W AND 120W. LIGHT TO MODERATE N-NE WINDS 
PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.

MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW PRES NEAR 14N103.5W WILL 
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES W-NW
AT 5-10 KT. MODELS ALSO INDICATE WINDS REACHING 20 TO 25 KT ON 
THE SE SIDE OF THE LOW...AND WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 10 FT.

LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELLS TO 7 FT ARE OBSERVED IN THE 
DEEP TROPICS BETWEEN 83W AND 130W. WIND WAVES GENERATED BY THE 
ENHANCED W-SW AND SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH 
HAS ALLOWED COMBINED SEAS TO BUILD TO 8-9 FT OVER A SIGNIFICANT 
PORTION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 
120W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS THE MONSOON
TROUGH REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION NEAR 10N TO 12N.

$$
MUNDELL