000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251555
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI AUG 24 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 13N88W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES AT 12N96W 
TO 14N102W TO 11N117W TO 12N127W TO 11N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM S OF AXIS FROM 95W TO 101W AND FROM 
108W TO 117W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF 
AXIS W OF 117W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...SCATTEROMETER...ALTIMETER...AND BUOY DATA SHOW 15 TO 
20 KT S TO SW FLOW CONVERGING INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH 
AXIS...SUPPORTING THE CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION FROM 95W TO 117W. 
NE FLOW ALOFT ROUNDING THE BASE OF A PERSISTENT UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL BAJA IS PROVIDING SHEAR OF 
THIS CONVECTION AND LIMITING INTENSITY. 1010 MB LOW PRES IS 
CENTERED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 112W. THIS IS EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE TO DRIFT W THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN 
INTENSITY.

W OF 110W...A WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH/TROPICAL WAVE IS 
LOCATED FROM 15N125W TO 11N126W. THIS IS ENHANCING SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS W OF 
117W...PRIMARILY BETWEEN 120W AND 125W. GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE 
SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE LOW FORMING ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 
120W OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO THE 
LOWER TO MID LEVEL TROUGH. BESIDES SUPPORTING THE EPISODIC 
CONVECTION THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT WILL BE TO MAINTAIN 
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW BETWEEN THE LOWER PRES AND 
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ALONG 30N. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING 30N W 
OF 130W SUN NIGHT WILL WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH THROUGH MON NIGHT 
THEN DISSIPATE. THIS TROUGH WILL DISRUPT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE 
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS AND MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS N 
OF 20N THROUGH TUE.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO AROUND 8
FT THROUGH SAT...THEN A SURGE OF SW SWELL ARRIVING SAT NIGHT WILL
PUSH SEA HEIGHTS TO 8-9 FT S OF 08N BETWEEN 95W AND 115W SUN AND 
MON...WHILE WINDS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAIN 20 KT OR LESS.

$$
CHRISTENSEN