000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241510
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI AUG 24 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 13N88W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES AT 12N96W 
TO 14N102W TO 11N117W TO 12N127W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM S OF AXIS FROM 95W TO 101W 
AND FROM 108W TO 117W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS W OF 117W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES 1028 MB IS CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 42N137W 
WITH WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 22N116W. WITH THE AREA OF 
HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE N OF THE AREA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND W OF 110W 
REMAINS WEAK. AS A RESULT...MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS 
PREVAIL OVER THIS AREA AS DEPICTED BY RECENT SCATTEROMETER 
DATA. THE MONSOON TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS THE EAST PAC ALONG 
11-12N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FEW TSTMS LOCATED ALONG AND 
WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE TROUGH AXIS...AND AS TYPICAL FOR THIS 
FAVORABLE BACKGROUND FLOW THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK LOWS 
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DEEP TROPICS THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS. THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL REMAIN CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE 
WITH MULTIPLE AREAS OF WEAK LOW PRES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 
TROUGH...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE ALL ALONG THE 
TROUGH AXIS. THOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT 
SOUTHWARD AND CLOSER TO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS...IT WILL WEAKEN AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN 
WEAK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS N OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH TUE. 

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO AROUND 8
FT THROUGH SAT...THEN A SURGE OF SW SWELL ARRIVING SAT NIGHT WILL
PUSH SEA HEIGHTS TO 8-9 FT COVERING THE AREA ROUGHLY S OF 08N 
BETWEEN 95W AND 115W SUN AND MON...WHILE WINDS S OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH REMAIN 20 KT OR LESS.

$$
AL