000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240925
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI AUG 24 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N87W TO 13N102W TO 11N118W TO 
12N132W...THEN ITCZ AXIS TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 91W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE MOST DISTINCTIVE MARINE WEATHER FEATURE TODAY IS WIDESPREAD 
AREA OF LIGHT WINDS COVERING MOST OF THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE 
BASIN FROM 08N TO 22N E OF 125W. SCATTEROMETER COVERAGE OVER THE 
PAST 6 HOURS SHOWS WINDS 10 KT OR LESS EXCEPT FOR SMALL AREA OF 
ENHANCED WINDS AROUND A WEAKENING TROUGH OF LOW PRES CENTERED 
NEAR 18N115W. THE MONSOON TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS THE EAST PAC 
ALONG 11-12N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FEW TSTMS LOCATED ALONG 
AND WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE TROUGH AXIS. WEAK LOWS EMBEDDED WITHIN 
THE MONSOON TROUGH ARE LOCATED NEAR 12N96W AND 12N110W.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DEEP TROPICS THE NEXT 
2-3 DAYS. THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL REMAIN CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH
MULTIPLE AREAS OF WEAK LOW PRES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH...BUT 
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE ALL ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. A 
COLD FRONT APPROACHING 30N W OF 130W SUN NIGHT WILL WEAKEN INTO A
TROUGH THROUGH MON NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE. THIS TROUGH WILL DISRUPT
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS AND MAINTAIN LIGHT
TO MODERATE WINDS N OF 20N THROUGH TUE. 

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO AROUND 8
FT THROUGH SAT...THEN A SURGE OF SW SWELL ARRIVING SAT NIGHT WILL
PUSH SEA HEIGHTS TO 8-9 FT S OF 08N BETWEEN 95W AND 115W SUN AND 
MON...WHILE WINDS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAIN 20 KT OR LESS.

$$
MUNDELL