000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231506
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU AUG 23 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A TROPICAL WAVE LIES ALONG 99W N OF 10N. ISOLATED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED N OF 12N WITHIN 60 NM OF WAVE AXIS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09.5N85W TO 12N101W TO 
11N113W TO 12N127W TO 11.5N133W THEN TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ 
EXTENDING TO A 1010 MB LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 11N138W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM N AND 
90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 84W AND 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 210 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 92W 
AND 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 131W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRES SYSTEM LIES NEAR 20N110W WITH 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM W QUADRANT. 
RECENT SATELLITE DERIVED SURFACE WINDS DEPICTED A CLOSED 
CIRCULATION AROUND THE CENTER...WITH WINDS REMAINING A MODERATE 
BREEZE OR LESS. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY OPEN UP INTO A 
TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

HIGH PRESSURE 1030 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 45N142W WITH WEAK RIDGE 
EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 24N118W. TRADEWINDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE 
GENERALLY LESS THAN A MODERATE BREEZE...WITH A FRESH BREEZE 
FOUND ON THE N SIDE OF 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N138W WHERE THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTEST. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
NOTED WITHIN 90 NM S QUADRANT OF THE LOW. THIS LOW IS FORECAST 
TO OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS W OF THE FORECAST AREA 
TODAY. 

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE TO S SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FT WILL 
PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA GENERALLY S OF 05N W OF 120W 
THROUGH FRI. A SECOND AREA OF 8 FT SEAS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA 
S OF 03N BETWEEN 92W AND 120W SAT. 

$$
AL