000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222136
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED AUG 22 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2030 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 09N93W TO 13N101W TO 
12N128W THEN ITCZ CONTINUES TO 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N134W TO 
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
NOTED FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 78W AND 95W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS 
FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 91W AND 94W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 108W AND 120W... 
AND FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 134W AND 137W.

...DISCUSSION...

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 28N114W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD TO 16N140W AND ANOTHER RIDGE 
SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 17N107W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERING THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 125W. 
DIFFLUENT CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION ALONG 
THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH.

THE 1013 MB REMNANT LOW OF HECTOR IS ANALYZED NEAR 21N114W ON 
THE 1800 UTC SURFACE MAP. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A 
SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM WHICH IS FORECAST TO 
DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE 1752 UTC ASCAT PASS 
PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 10 TO 15 KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS 
WEAKENING LOW. ANOTHER STATIONARY AREA OF 1011 MB LOW PRES LIES 
SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 20N109W. CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY 
INCREASED SINCE YESTERDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE EXPOSED 
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
NOTED FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 108W AND 112W...AND NEAR 
20.5N110W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
AFOREMENTIONED BROAD ANTICYCLONE IS HELPING TO INDUCE THIS 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE 
FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE LOW DRIFTS 
SOUTHWESTWARD. IN FACT...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT 
THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME A TROUGH BY FRI.

FARTHER S...A 1010 MB LOW PRES CENTERED IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ 
NEAR 11N134W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE MAINLY WITHIN 45 
NM SW QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER. CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE TO 
PULSE...BUT THE LOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FURTHER AS IT 
MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE TO S SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FT WILL 
LIE OVER THE FORECAST WATERS GENERALLY S OF 05N W OF 115W DURING 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

$$
GR