000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220913
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED AUG 22 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0730 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 08N76W TO 10N85W TO 10N104W TO 
13N113W TO 12N117W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 12N117W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES 
NEAR 12N132W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 
NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 108W AND 111W AND WITHIN 150 NM S OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 113W AND 119W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 90 NM N AND W QUADRANTS OF LOW PRES NEAR 12N132W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE RELATIVELY STAGNANT UPPER PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST AREA 
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE BROAD ANTICYCLONE ALOFT 
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 28N112W EXTENDS RIDGE 
AXES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 16N140W AND SOUTHWARD TO 17N108W. WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT AND IMPLIED SUBSIDENCE 
N OF 15N W OF 128W. DIFFLUENT CONDITIONS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE MORE EASTERN RIDGE AXIS ARE ENHANCING THE SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 
23N TO 26N AS WELL AS WITH THE LOW PRES SYSTEM NEAR 20N108W 
DESCRIBED IN THE PARAGRAPH BELOW.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS WEAK...STEMMING 
FROM 1027 MB HIGH PRES WELL TO THE NW OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 
35N170W. THE COMPROMISED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS YIELDED TRADE 
WINDS ONLY AS STRONG AS A MODERATE BREEZE OVER THE FORECAST 
AREA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD 
AS MEAN TROUGHING ALOFT LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC 
AND PREVENTS THE BUILDING OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE. THE 1011 MB 
REMNANT LOW OF HECTOR WAS ANALYZED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE 
RIDGE NEAR 22N115W. THIS SYSTEM HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE LAST 
FEW DAYS. THE 0524 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE CIRCULATION IS 
BEGINNING TO OPEN UP ON THE NE SIDE...AND THIS LOW SHOULD 
DISSIPATE SHORTLY. ANOTHER STATIONARY AREA OF 1011 MB LOW PRES 
LIES SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 20N108W. 
THE 1634 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS A CLOSED CIRCULATION AROUND THE 
CENTER BUT WINDS REMAIN A FRESH BREEZE OR LESS. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS BETWEEN 75 NM AND 150 NM W AND NW 
QUADRANTS OF THE LOW. CONDITIONS WITH THIS LOW ARE EXPECTED TO 
CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

FARTHER S...A 1010 MB AREA OF LOW PRES EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ NEAR 
12N132W IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM 
OF ITS N AND W QUADRANTS. THIS LOW SHOULD REMAIN UNDER BROADLY 
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN 
RIDGE AXIS. CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE TO PULSE FROM THE LOW...BUT 
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF 
THE SYSTEM.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE TO S SWELL TO 8 FT WILL LIE OVER THE 
FORECAST AREA S OF 05N W OF 115W DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

$$
SCHAUER