000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190914
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN AUG 19 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0715 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 13N87W TO 11N94W TO 
12N103W TO 08N115W TO 13N124W TO LOW PRES NEAR 13N127W TO 
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM S OF 
THE AXIS AND N OF THE AXIS TO COAST BETWEEN 87W AND 94W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 90 NM NW SEMICIRCLE OF 
THE 1011 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE 
0624 UTC ASCAT PASS CAPTURED WINDS AS STRONG AS A MODERATE 
BREEZE IN THE W SEMICIRCLE OF THIS LOW. 

...DISCUSSION...

A BROAD ANTICYCLONE ALOFT NEAR 31N118W EXTENDS RIDGE AXES 
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 22N140W AND SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN 
MEXICO TO BROWNSVILLE...TEXAS. AN UPPER LOW S OF THE RIDGE AXIS 
NEAR 20N132W IS PUMPING MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOSITURE INTO THE 
AREA N OF 20N BETWEEN 120W AND 135W. DRY AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENT 
CONDITIONS CAN BE FOUND TO ITS W IN THE AREA N OF 14N W OF 135W. 

ANOTHER ANTICYLONE ALOFT LIES OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 18N101W 
AND EXTENDS A SHORT RIDGE ALONG 20N TO 107W. THE DIFFLUENT 
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE AXIS ALOFT ARE ENHANCING 
THE CONVECTION ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR CABO CORRIENTES. 
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE HIGHER HERE THAN ANYWHERE ELSE IN 
THE FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THIS MOSITURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
REMNANTS OF ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE HELENE. THE 0446 UTC ASCAT 
PASS SHOWS A SURFACE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED ALONG 105W N OF 14N. 
0000 UTC OBSERVATIONS FROM SHIPS DFCX2 AND DCPC2 CONFIRM THE 
WIND DIRECTIONS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH SEEN IN THE ASCAT 
PASS AND SHOW FRESH TO STRONG WINDS NEAR THE TROUGH. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM W AND 30 NM E OF 
THE TROUGH FROM 15N TO 22N. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LINGER 
OFF THE CABO CORRIENTES COAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND 
CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE LITTLE.
 
1020 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 31N135W IS PRESENTING AN 
OBSTACLE FOR THE NORTHWARD MOTION OF THE REMAINS OF HECTOR. A 
CLOSED LOW PRES CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE HECTOR REMNANTS WAS 
ANALYZED NEAR 23N116W 1010 MB AT 0600 UTC. THERE IS NO DEEP 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. THE 0448 UTC ASCAT PASS 
SHOWS WINDS ARE NO STRONGER THAN A MODERATE BREEZE IN THE W 
SEMICIRCLE. THE REMNANTS OF HECTOR ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE 
TODAY. 

CROSS-EQUATORIAL S SWELL TO 8 FT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST 
AREA S OF 03N FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

$$
SCHAUER