000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162104
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU AUG 16 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HECTOR AT 19.9N 116.1W AT 2100 UTC MOVING N- 
NW OR 335 DEG AT 04 KT WITH MAXIMUM WINDS 25 GUSTS TO 35 KT. 
CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB.  HECTOR EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER TO 
A REMNANT LOW PRES TONIGHT AS CONVECTION NOW RESTRICTED TO ITS 
WESTERN QUADRANT UNDER MODERATE AND INCREASING WIND SHEAR ALOFT 
AND COOLER SST.  SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ 
WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N83W TO 10N92W TO EMBEDDED LOW PRES 08N98W 
1010 MB TO 10N104W THEN RESUMES FROM 14N120W TO BEYOND 09N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM SE 
OF AXIS FROM 120W TO 137W.   

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE N OF AREA AT 36N132W HAS TROUGH EXTENDING S 
TO A NOT-WELL-DEFINED CYCLONE AT 15N130W.  MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDING AIR MASS REMAINS DRY AND STABLE W OF 121W. N OF 
MONSOON TROUGH.  FURTHER E...UPPER LEVEL ANTICYLONE CENTERED 
OVER NW MEXICO AT 26N110W FLOWS WARM MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS 
INTO E PAC E OF 115W.  ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALOFT E OF MONSOON 
TROUGH AXIS PROVIDES ONE INGREDIENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF 1010 MB 
LOW PRES CENTER AT 08N98W...BUT PRESENT STEADY FLOW OF MODERATE 
EASTERLY WIND SHEAR PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.  
MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS POINT TO LOW PRES TO MEANDER W-NW BUT 
ARE NOT KEEN ON A POSITION...STRENGTHENING OR OTHERWISE THREATEN 
TO BECOME A TROPICAL FEATURE.
 
...ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND  
OVER GULF OF CALIFORNIA S OF 28N.  

CROSS EQUATORIAL LONG PERIOD S SWELL PROPAGATING N AS FAR AS 19N 
WITH SEAS TO 10 FT IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE FRI.

$$
WALLY BARNES