000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161605
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU AUG 16 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HECTOR IS NEAR 19.7N 115.9W AT 
1500 UTC MOVING N NW OR 335 DEG AT 04 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS OF 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. HECTOR CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE EASTERLY 
SHEAR WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OVER THE SW 
QUADRANT. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF CENTER 
FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 108W AND 114W. HECTOR IS EXPECTED TO 
DISSIPATE TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS AS IS SLOWLY MOVES N 
NW TO AN AREA OF INCREASINGLY COOLER SURFACE WATERS. SEE LATEST 
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N77W TO 10N90W TO EMBEDDED 
LOW PRES AT 08N98W 1009 MB TO 10N108W...THEN RESUMES FROM 
13N123W TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 77W AND 88W...AND FROM 08N TO 13N 
BETWEEN 112W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE N OF AREA AT 36N132W HAS TROUGH EXTENDING S 
TO 25N123W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. FURTHER E...UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYLONE IS CENTERED OVER NW MEXICO NEAR 27N109W FORCES WARM 
MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS INTO E PAC FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN 100W 
AND 120W TO INCLUDE OVER HECTOR. FURTHER E...AN INVERTED UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS ALONG 100W N OF 3N. CONSIDERABLE UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE COAST OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
 
...AT THE LOWER LEVELS...

OF NOTE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE S BAJA 
CALIFORNIA AND OVER THE S GULF OF CALIFORNIA S OF 27N.  

LOW PRES CENTER 1009 MB AT 08N98W EMBEDDED IN MONSOON TROUGH IS 
DRIFTING W NW. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER A SMALL 
AREA FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 98W AND 100W.  

LONG PERIOD S SWELL IS S OF 09N BETWEEN 80W AND 87W AND S OF 15N 
BETWEEN 91W AND 103W WITH WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS TO 9 FT. 
THIS SWELL IS FORECAST TO LAST LESS THAN 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA