000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160355
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU AUG 16 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HECTOR AT 18.8N 115.4W AT 16/0300 UTC MOVING 
N OR 355 DEG AT 5 KT.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 1004 MB.  MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 25 WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.  HECTOR UNDER 
MODERATE AND INCREASING E-SE WIND SHEAR AS IT MOVES INTO 
INCREASINGLY ADVERSE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS 
WEAKENING TREND AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW PRES BY EARLY FRI.  
MOST OF ITS DIMINISHING DEEP CONVECTION NOW DISPLACED TO WITHIN 
60 NM IN NW QUADRANT.  SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/ WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 13N90W TO EMBEDDED LOW PRES 1009 MB AT 
07N98W TO 13N104W THEN RESUMES FROM 15N120W TO BEYOND 09N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM SE OF AXIS E OF 93W. 

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE N OF AREA AT 34N131W HAS TROUGH EXTEND SE TO 
SECOND CYCLONE AT 18N125W WITH VERY DRY SUBSIDING AIR MASS N OF 
20N W OF 120W.  UPPER LEVEL ANTICYLONE CENTERED W OF 140 ALONG 
21N HAS RIDGE EXTEND E TO 25N125W MAINTAINING AIR MASS DRY 
ELSEWHERE W OF 120W.  SECOND MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTICYLONE OVER NW 
MEXICO FORCES WARM MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS INTO E PAC E OF 120W 
BUT NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL ORGANIZATION DETECTED.  MODEL GUIDANCE 
AGREE ON LOWER PRESSURES IN REGION...BUT NO SOLUTION INDICATE 
SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING OR TROPICAL ORGANIZATION.  FORECAST DO NOT 
FORESEE ANY DEVELOPMENT IN AREA AT THIS TIME.  

...AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
LOW PRES CENTER 1008 MB AT 07N98W EMBEDDED IN MONSOON TROUGH 
DRIFT W-NW WITH NO SIGNS OF DEEPENING OR TROPICAL ORGANIZATION. 
NEVERTHELESS...WARM MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS SURROUNDS LOW PRES 
AND SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. 

LONG PERIOD SW SWELLS S OF 21N E OF 120W SPREADING AS FAR N AS 
23N EVEN IMPACTING SRN FRINGES OF GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  SWELLS 
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY EARLY FRI. 
 
$$
WALLY BARNES