000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152203
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED AUG 15 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HECTOR AT 18.5 115.0W AT 15/2100 UTC MOVING 
N OR 360 DEG AT 6 KT HAS NOW WEAKENED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION.   
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 1003 MB.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 
SPEED 30 WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.  HECTOR UNDER MODERATE AND 
INCREASING E-SE WIND SHEAR AS IT MOVES INTO INCREASINGLY ADVERSE 
CONDITIONS. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS WEAKENING TREND AND 
BECOME A REMNANT LOW PRES BY FRI.  MOST OF ITS DIMINISHING DEEP 
CONVECTION NOW DISPLACED TO WITHIN 240 NM IN SW QUADRANT.  SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/ 
WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N85W TO 11N88W TO EMBEDDED LOW PRES 1009 
MB AT 08N98W TO 14N104W THEN RESUMES FROM 14N120W TO BEYOND 
09N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF AXIS TO 06N E OF 
100W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE N OF AREA AT 34N131W HAS TROUGH EXTEND SE TO 
SECOND CYCLONE AT 19N124W WITH VERY DRY SUBSIDING AIR MASS N OF 
20N W OF 120W.  UPPER LEVEL ANTICYLONE CENTERED W OF 140 ALONG 
22N HAS RIDGE EXTEND E TO 128W MAINTAINING AIR MASS DRY 
ELSEWHERE W OF 120W.  SECOND MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTICYLONE OVER 
W-CENTRAL MEXICO FORCES WARM MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS INTO E PAC 
E OF 120W BUT NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL ORGANIZATION DETECTED.  MODEL 
GUIDANCE AGREE ON LOWER PRESSURES IN REGION...BUT NO SOLUTION 
INDICATE SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING OR TROPICAL ORGANIZATION.  
FORECAST DO NOT FORESEE ANY DEVELOPMENT IN AREA AT THIS TIME.  

...AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
LOW PRES CENTER 1009 MB AT 09N93W EMBEDDED IN MONSOON TROUGH 
DRIFT W-NW WITH NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL ORGANIZATION OR DEEPENING.  
NEVERTHELESS...WARM MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS SURROUNDS LOW PRES 
AND SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. 

LONG PERIOD SW SWELLS S OF 21N E OF 120W SPREADING AS FAR N AS 
23N EVEN IMPACTING SRN FRINGES OF GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  SWELLS 
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE OVER NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
 
$$
WALLY BARNES