000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142209
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE AUG 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM HECTOR CENTERED AT 17.6N 114.9W AT 14/2100 UTC 
MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 4 KT.  ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 
1000 MB.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 35 WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 
HECTOR SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED BY MODERATE WIND SHEAR ALOFT AND 
COOLER SST.  ITS CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED AND SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION NOW RESTRICTED TO SW QUADRANT INDICATING THE 
DOWNWARD TREND.  HECTOR EXPECTED TO BECOME TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
LATE WED NIGHT.  MODELS AGREE ON SCENARIO AS OVERALL ENVIRONMENT 
REMAINS ADVERSE. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ 
WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO EMBEDDED 1009 MB LOW PRES 
AT 09N93W TO 17N105W THEN RESUMES FROM 13N114W TO 12N129W TO 
10N136W.  ITCZ AXIS HENCE TO BEYOND 09N140W.  ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION N OF 03N E OF 103W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS FROM 113W TO 123W.

...DISCUSSION...
ILL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE AT 28N120W HAS ASSOCIATED TROUGH 
EXTEND S-SW TO 20N120W...JUST W OF TROPICAL STORM HECTOR...AND 
ONE OF THE CONTRIBUTORS TO HECTORS WEAKENING.  BROAD UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYLONE CENTER JUST W OF FORECAST REGION AT 22N141W HAS RIDGE 
EXTENDING NE TO 32N122W.  DRY STABLE AIR MASS COVER LARGE REGION 
OF BASIN MAINLY N OF 15N W OF 120W.  AFOREMENTIONED CYCLONE 
EXTEND DRY SLOT FURTHER E TO BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST.  SECOND 
ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO MAINTAINS FLOW OF MOIST TROPICAL 
AIR MASS INTO E PAC E OF 110W.  

...AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
LOW PRES CENTER 1009 MB AT 09N93W EMBEDDED IN MONSOON TROUGH 
REMAINS UNDER MODERATE NE SHEAR ALOFT AND AT THE EDGE OF REGION 
OF A DRY AIR POCKET.  STRONG MONSOONAL SW WINDS JUST NW OF LOW 
PRES DO NOT HELP ORGANIZED TROPICAL CIRCULATION.  SO CONDITIONS 
ARE MIXED AND NONE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS GIVES MUCH 
ATTENTION TO SYSTEM.  FORECAST KEEPS LOW IN MAP WITH VERY LOW 
PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPMENT. 

CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL RESULTING IN 10-11 FT SEAS 
PROPAGATING N ACROSS E PAC WATERS S OF 10N E OF 120W.  

$$
WALLY BARNES