000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140945 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE AUG 14 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE EXPOSED CENTER OF MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM HECTOR IS AT 17.9N 114.0W AT 0900 UTC MOVING W OR 265 DEG AT 05 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. HECTOR CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR WITH NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION OBSERVED WITHIN 300 NM OVER THE SW SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED E OF THE CENTER WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18N110W TO 19N113W. HECTOR IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE AS IT STEERED WESTWARD TODAY WITH THE EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUING AND THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS A GRADUAL COOLING OF SURFACE WATERS. HECTOR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION WED NIGHT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS W TO E ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA INTO A SMALL EMBEDDED LOW PRES AT 09N90W...THEN TURNS NW TO 14N103W WHERE IT LOSES IDENTITY IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE HECTOR AND INCREASING MONSOONAL FLOW. THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BECOMES DEFINED AGAIN NEAR 12N119W AND CONTINUES W TO NEAR 11N135W BEFORE TURNING SW TO BEYOND 08N140W. ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04W TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA ALL TO THE E OF 106W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N105W TO 11N119W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM OF 06N140.5W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER CYCLONE IS NOTED JUST N OF THE AREA AT 36N132W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N133W TO A VERY SMALL UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 12N139W. AN UPPER ANTICYLONE IS QUASI STATIONARY NEAR 27N127W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO CREST AT 32N124W...AND A RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS SW TO 26N123W. A SECOND UPPER ANTICYLONE HAS SHIFTED NE TO A POSITION OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO BORDER...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. BETWEEN THESE TWO ANTICYCLONES IS AN UPPER CYCLONE WHICH IS FILLING AT 30N117W...WITH A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW ALONG 22N123W AND SEEMS TO MERGE INTO THE BASE OF A SECOND UPPER TROUGH THAT TERMINATES AT 12N139W. THESE UPPER FEATURES ALL COMBINE TO DRY OUT THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N W OF 118W...AND FROM 11N TO 20N BETWEEN 132W AND 140W. AN UPPER TROUGH THAT DISSECTS THE CENTRAL CONUS NOW EXTENDS SW ACROSS OLD MEXICO ALONG 27N105W INTO A SMALL UPPER CYCLONE AT 23N109W...TO ANOTHER CYCLONE AT 17N114W WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING SW TO A BASE AT 10N115W. STRONG UPPER LEVEL NE WINDS OVER THE W SEMICIRCLE OF THE UPPER CYCLONE AT 17N114W IS SHEARING THE LOW LEVEL TROPICAL CYCLONE HECTOR AND ADVECTING THE DEBRIS MOISTURE S ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 10N TO 19N BETWEEN 113W AND 125W. YET ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AT 22N97W WITH A RIDGE SW TO 11N109W. THE ASSOCIATED NE UPPER FLOW IS ADVECTING DEBRIS MOISTURE...ORIGINATING FROM CONVECTION OVER INTERIOR OLD MEXICO AND THE ISOLATED MONSOONAL CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC...SW AND CROSSING THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 105W AND 125W. SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ALSO SPREADS NE AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE FANNING OUT OVER NE OLD MEXICO...AND OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OBSERVED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO THE DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC AT 10N90W RESULTING IN DRY UPPER AIR SUPPRESSING CONVECTION OVER THE AREA N OF 09.5N BETWEEN 86W AND 92W. DENSE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS NOTED ELSEWHERE N OF 02N BETWEEN 100W AND 80W AND IS SPREADING SW WITH TIME. A SURFACE LOW ANALYZED NEAR 16N100W HAS BEEN TRACKING NW PARALLEL TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WITH INTERMITTENT BANDING CONVECTION. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SMALL CYCLONE WILL MOVE RACE NW TODAY AND TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A SMALL ARE OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS...AROUND THE NE PERIPHERY OF THE MUCH BROADER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH HECTOR... LOSING IDENTITY EARLY WED NEAR 21N112W. THIS ALL OCCURS BEFORE THE 24 HOUR MARINE GRAPHIC BECOMES VALID. THE ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC 20 KT OR GREATER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM HECTOR IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO SHRINK IN AREAL COVERAGE. SOUTHERLY MONSOON FLOW AT 20 TO 25 KT TO THE S OF HECTOR IS EXPECTED CONTINUE WITH SOUTHERLY SWELLS EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA FROM 09N TO 23N BETWEEN 102W AND 119W DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SOUTHERLY SWELL...RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT... WILL PROPAGATE NE ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS S OF 09N BETWEEN 80W AND 103W INTERRUPTED BETWEEN 88W AND 90W BY THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. $$ NELSON