000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140347
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE AUG 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM HECTOR NEAR 18.0N 113.2W AT 0300 UTC MOVING W OR 
270 DEG AT 5 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT AND GUSTS TO 
50 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB. STRONG ENE 
SHEAR ALOFT IS DISPLACING THE DEEP CONVECTION W OF THE LOW LEVEL 
CENTER...WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 270 
NM SW SEMICIRCLE. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH 
TUE EVENING AS HECTOR STEERED WESTWARD BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER 
THE SW UNITED STATES. HECTOR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION BY THU. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ 
WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 08N83W TO 
15N99W TO 16N110W...THEN FROM 14N121W TO 13N130W TO 10N135W. THE 
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N135W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM N AND 240 NM S OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 80W AND 110W. 

...DISCUSSION...

BROAD HIGH PRES NW OF THE AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS NW PORTION 
OF DISCUSSION AREA. VERY ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH PATTERN DOMINATES 
THE REGION...AND REACHES WESTWARD FROM THE COAST OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA TO NEAR 135W IN THE EQUATORIAL REGION. FRESH-STRONG WSW 
WINDS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH PREVAILS IN THE DEEP TROPICS EAST 
OF 123W...WITH MULTIPLE AREAS OF LOW PRES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 
MONSOON TROUGH EVIDENT FROM ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY...NEAR 
15N93W AND 08N89W. THE ACTIVE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING INCREASED SEA 
HEIGHTS SOUTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS...WITH A BROAD AREA OF 7-8 FT 
SEAS BETWEEN 100W AND 120W BASED ON ALTIMETER PASSES.

FRESH WSW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH 
FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS...AND GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS FRESH TO 
STRONG WSW S OF HECTOR PUSHING RAPIDLY EAST TOWARD THE COAST OF 
MEXICO THROUGH WED...WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES PINWHEELING 
AROUND A COMMON CENTER BETWEEN HECTOR AS IT WEAKENS AND LOW PRES 
DEVELOPING SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

GAP WINDS...FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
WILL STEADILY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND TUE.

$$
MUNDELL