000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130348
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON AUG 13 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM HECTOR CENTERED NEAR 18.1N 110.3W AT 0300 UTC 
MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 
TO 50 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB. HECTOR IS 
ENCOUNTERING STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR WHICH IS DISPLACING MOST OF 
THE DEEP CONVECTION WELL TO THE WEST OF THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL 
CENTER. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 400 NM W OF HECTOR 
FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 112W AND 117W. SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE IS 
EXPECTED TO PERSIST... AND HECTOR WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME 
STRENGTHENING SIGNIFICANTLY...IF AT ALL. HECTOR WILL CONTINUE 
MOVING WESTWARD SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SW UNITED 
STATES. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA 
FROM 09N83W TO 14N92W THROUGH A LOW NEAR 14N95W TO 15N104W... 
THEN FROM 15N111W TO 15N126W TO 10N136W. ITCZ FROM 10N136W TO 
09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 09N TO 15N 
BETWEEN 98W AND 118W. 

...DISCUSSION...

BROAD HIGH PRES NW OF THE AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS NW PORTION 
OF DISCUSSION AREA FROM 30N125W TO 16N140W. VERY ACTIVE MONSOON 
TROUGH DOMINATES THE REGION...AND REACHES WESTWARD FROM THE COAST
OF CENTRAL AMERICA TO AN AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC 
NEAR 08N145W. FRESH TO STRONG WSW WINDS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH 
PREVAILS IN THE DEEP TROPICS EAST OF 132W...WITH AREAS OF LOW 
PRES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
IN ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 14N95W AND 17N103W. THE ACTIVE
MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING INCREASED SEA HEIGHTS SOUTH OF THE 
TROUGH AXIS...WITH A BROAD AREA OF 7-8 FT SEAS BETWEEN 100W AND 
125W BASED ON ALTIMETER PASSES. FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE GENERATED A SHRINKING 
AREA OF SWELL IN NORTHERN PORTION NEAR 30N BETWEEN 125W AND 132W.

REMNANT LOW GILMA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE WITHIN THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. FRESH WSW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST S OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS...AND GFS MODEL GUIDANCE 
SHOWS THE LOW SE OF HECTOR NEAR 14N95W BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED 
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS IT MOVES W TO WNW ALONG THE COAST 
OF MEXICO. BY MON NIGHT OR TUE IT COULD BECOME DOMINANT TROPICAL 
FEATURE IN THE EAST PACIFIC AS HECTOR WEAKENS UNDER PERSISTENT 
STRONG SHEARING EFFECTS.

GAP WINDS...FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE 
INTO AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO LATE TONIGHT 
AND MON...THEN DIMINISH MON AFTERNOON.

$$
MUNDELL