000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112140
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT AUG 11 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA...REMNANTS OF FORMER ATLANTIC TROPICAL 
CYCLONE ERNESTO...HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
EIGHT-E. THE DEPRESSION WAS CENTERED NEAR 17.7N 107.1W AT 
11/2100 UTC MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 9 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS OF 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 240 NM OF CENTER IN THE W AND NW 
QUADRANTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED 
DEVELOPMENT AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL 
STORM TONIGHT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GILMA HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW. THE 
LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR 20.6N 120.5W AT 11/2100 UTC MOVING NW OR 
320 DEG AT 5 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KT WITH 
HIGHER GUSTS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. THE 
SYSTEM IS VOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION...CONSISTING OF A SWIRL OF 
LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. GILMA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NW OVER THE 
NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON GILMA. FOR 
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS 
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS 
HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 09N84W TO 09N93W TO 
15N101W...AND FROM 16N123W TO 12N128W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS E OF 101W...AND WITHIN 90 NM S OF 
AXIS W OF 123W.

...DISCUSSION...
A SPRAWLING ANTICYLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CONUS WITH THE 
ASSOCIATED FLOW DOMINATING NORTHERN MEXICO AND RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDING SW TOWARD THE REMNANT LOW OF GILMA. THE EASTERLY FLOW 
S OF THE ANTICYCLONE WAS PROVIDING EXCELLENT OUTFLOW OVER 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E. A SMALLER UPPER ANTICYLONE IS 
CENTERED NEAR 23N135W WITH ITS ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND 
ACCOMPANYING VERY DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATING THE UPPER LEVELS FROM 
20N TO 32N BETWEEN 128W AND 142W. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS 
OBSERVED BETWEEN THESE TWO ANTICYCLONES EXTENDING SW FROM A 
SMALL UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR 31N120W TO 21N125W. DEBRIS 
MOISTURE FROM GILMA IS ADVECTED NE ALONG THE W PERIPHERY OF THE 
RIDGE...BUT EVAPORATES NEAR 26N118W. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW 
DOMINATES THE UPPER LEVELS FROM 10N TO 22N BETWEEN 90W AND 114W 
WHILE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW S OF THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED 
MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE INTENSE CONVECTION NOTED ABOVE 
NEAR TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E...AND THE OTHER CONVECTION 
NOTED E OF 101W. 

NE WINDS AT 20 KT...WITH MERGING N AND NE SWELL RESULTING IN 
COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FT...IS FORECAST OVER THE AREA N OF 25N 
BETWEEN 120W AND 135W THROUGH SUN...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 
KT OR LESS AND SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT ON MON.

$$
COBB