000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110354
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT AUG 11 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM GILMA NEAR 19.5N 119.6W AT 11/0300 UTC MOVING NNW 
AT 4 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS TO 60 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTION HAD FLARED IN THE SE QUADRANT OF 
THE STORM EARLIER...BUT HAS SINCE DIMINISHED. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION PERSISTS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. GILMA IS 
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY EARLY SUN AS IT 
MOVES INTO AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUSTAINED DEEP 
CONVECTION.

THE MID-LEVEL REMNANT CIRCULATION OF ERNESTO HAS MOVED OFF THE 
COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC 
OCEAN...ALLOWING 1001 MB LOW TO FORM NEAR 17N103W. ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT TO 
OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE IS NOTED WITHIN 180 
NM OF THE LOW PRES.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH ALONG CENTRAL AMERICA COAST FROM 09N78W TO 14N88W 
TO LOW PRES 1001 MB 17N103W...THEN TO 11N106W TO 14N121W TO 
09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM WITHIN 120 
NM OF TROUGH BETWEEN 101W AND 109W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 85W AND 95W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S OF TROUGH W OF 126W.

...DISCUSSION...
ENHANCED SW FLOW INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH IS MAINTAINING CLUSTERS 
OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 06N 
AND E OF 100W...ALTHOUGH THIS REMAINS LARGELY DISORGANIZED DUE 
TO STRONG N TO NE SHEAR ALOFT. AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS 
INDICATED FRESH SW FLOW INTO THE DEEPENING LOW PRES NEAR 17N103W 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT MID LEVEL LOW OF ERNESTO OFF THE 
MEXICAN COAST. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH 24 HOURS AS THE 
LOW DEEPENS AND DRIFTS W...POSSIBLY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. 

N SWELL TO 8 FT CONTINUES TO MOVE AS FAR SOUTH AS 28N...ALTHOUGH 
THIS WILL DECAY BELOW 8 FT THROUGH 36 TO 48 HOURS. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN